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Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About American States Water Company (NYSE:AWR)?

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 3, 2022 08:55

It is hard to get excited after looking at American States Water's (NYSE:AWR) recent performance, when its stock has declined 8.2% over the past month. However, a closer look at its sound financials might cause you to think again. Given that fundamentals usually drive long-term market outcomes, the company is worth looking at. Particularly, we will be paying attention to American States Water's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

View our latest analysis for American States Water

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for American States Water is:

12% = US$83m ÷ US$694m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2022).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.12 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

American States Water's Earnings Growth And 12% ROE

To begin with, American States Water seems to have a respectable ROE. Further, the company's ROE compares quite favorably to the industry average of 8.4%. This probably laid the ground for American States Water's moderate 8.1% net income growth seen over the past five years.

Next, on comparing American States Water's net income growth with the industry, we found that the company's reported growth is similar to the industry average growth rate of 7.9% in the same period.

past-earnings-growthNYSE:AWR Past Earnings Growth September 3rd 2022

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is American States Water fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is American States Water Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

The high three-year median payout ratio of 54% (or a retention ratio of 46%) for American States Water suggests that the company's growth wasn't really hampered despite it returning most of its income to its shareholders.

Besides, American States Water has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 60%. Accordingly, forecasts suggest that American States Water's future ROE will be 14% which is again, similar to the current ROE.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that American States Water's performance has been quite good. We are particularly impressed by the considerable earnings growth posted by the company, which was likely backed by its high ROE. While the company is paying out most of its earnings as dividends, it has been able to grow its earnings in spite of it, so that's probably a good sign. On studying current analyst estimates, we found that analysts expect the company to continue its recent growth streak. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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