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AECOM's (NYSE:ACM) Has Had A Decent Run On The Stock Market: Are Fundamentals In The Driver's Seat?

Simply Wall St ·  Aug 29, 2022 09:50

Most readers would already know that AECOM's (NYSE:ACM) stock increased by 6.2% over the past three months. We wonder if and what role the company's financials play in that price change as a company's long-term fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes. Particularly, we will be paying attention to AECOM's ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors' money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

See our latest analysis for AECOM

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for AECOM is:

15% = US$397m ÷ US$2.6b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2022).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.15.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don't share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of AECOM's Earnings Growth And 15% ROE

At first glance, AECOM seems to have a decent ROE. Further, the company's ROE compares quite favorably to the industry average of 10%. Despite this, AECOM's five year net income growth was quite low averaging at only 4.5%. This is generally not the case as when a company has a high rate of return it should usually also have a high earnings growth rate. We reckon that a low growth, when returns are quite high could be the result of certain circumstances like low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that AECOM's reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 13% in the same period, which is not something we like to see.

past-earnings-growthNYSE:ACM Past Earnings Growth August 29th 2022

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is ACM fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is AECOM Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

A low three-year median payout ratio of 15% (implying that the company retains the remaining 85% of its income) suggests that AECOM is retaining most of its profits. However, the low earnings growth number doesn't reflect this as high growth usually follows high profit retention. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For example, the business has faced some headwinds.

Only recently, AECOM started paying a dividend. This means that the management might have concluded that its shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth.

Summary

Overall, we feel that AECOM certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a high ROE and and a high reinvestment rate. We believe that there might be some outside factors that could be having a negative impact on the business. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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