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Earnings Are Growing at China BlueChemical (HKG:3983) but Shareholders Still Don't Like Its Prospects

Simply Wall St ·  Aug 24, 2022 20:30

Most people feel a little frustrated if a stock they own goes down in price. But often it is not a reflection of the fundamental business performance. So while the China BlueChemical Ltd. (HKG:3983) share price is down 15% in the last year, the total return to shareholders (which includes dividends) was -9.0%. That's better than the market which declined 18% over the last year. The silver lining (for longer term investors) is that the stock is still 2.0% higher than it was three years ago. The share price has dropped 23% in three months.

With the stock having lost 4.2% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

Check out our latest analysis for China BlueChemical

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Even though the China BlueChemical share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It could be that the share price was previously over-hyped.

It's surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.

China BlueChemical's dividend seems healthy to us, so we doubt that the yield is a concern for the market. From what we can see, revenue is pretty flat, so that doesn't really explain the share price drop. Of course, it could simply be that it simply fell short of the market consensus expectations.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growthSEHK:3983 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 25th 2022

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, China BlueChemical's TSR for the last 1 year was -9.0%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While it's never nice to take a loss, China BlueChemical shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 9.0% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 18%. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4%, each year, over five years. It could be that the business is just facing some short term problems, but shareholders should keep a close eye on the fundamentals. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with China BlueChemical , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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