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Oversea-Chinese Banking's (SGX:O39) three-year earnings growth trails the 7.8% YoY shareholder returns

Simply Wall St ·  Aug 4, 2022 18:17

By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But if you buy good businesses at attractive prices, your portfolio returns could exceed the average market return. For example, the Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (SGX:O39) share price is up 10% in the last three years, clearly besting the market decline of around 9.3% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 2.7% in the last year , including dividends .

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Oversea-Chinese Banking investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's three-year performance.

Check out our latest analysis for Oversea-Chinese Banking

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Oversea-Chinese Banking was able to grow its EPS at 0.8% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. This EPS growth is lower than the 3% average annual increase in the share price. This indicates that the market is feeling more optimistic on the stock, after the last few years of progress. That's not necessarily surprising considering the three-year track record of earnings growth.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growthSGX:O39 Earnings Per Share Growth August 4th 2022

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Oversea-Chinese Banking's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Oversea-Chinese Banking, it has a TSR of 25% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Oversea-Chinese Banking provided a TSR of 2.7% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 5% per year for five years. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Oversea-Chinese Banking you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on SG exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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