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The five-year decline in earnings for Huazhong In-Vehicle Holdings HKG:6830) isn't encouraging, but shareholders are still up 277% over that period

Simply Wall St ·  Jul 27, 2022 19:10

When you buy shares in a company, it's worth keeping in mind the possibility that it could fail, and you could lose your money. But on the bright side, you can make far more than 100% on a really good stock. For example, the Huazhong In-Vehicle Holdings Company Limited (HKG:6830) share price has soared 266% in the last half decade. Most would be very happy with that. Then again, the 8.8% share price decline hasn't been so fun for shareholders. We note that the broader market is down 5.8% in the last month, and this may have impacted Huazhong In-Vehicle Holdings' share price.

Although Huazhong In-Vehicle Holdings has shed CN¥407m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Huazhong In-Vehicle Holdings

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Huazhong In-Vehicle Holdings actually saw its EPS drop 14% per year.

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

The modest 0.2% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. On the other hand, Huazhong In-Vehicle Holdings' revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 3.4% over the last five years. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growthSEHK:6830 Earnings and Revenue Growth July 27th 2022

Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Huazhong In-Vehicle Holdings' TSR for the last 5 years was 277%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Huazhong In-Vehicle Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 40% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 30% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Huazhong In-Vehicle Holdings has 4 warning signs (and 2 which are a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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