How far off is Winner Medical Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300888) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Winner Medical
Crunching The Numbers
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)||CN¥1.74b||CN¥1.94b||CN¥2.10b||CN¥2.24b||CN¥2.36b||CN¥2.48b||CN¥2.59b||CN¥2.69b||CN¥2.79b||CN¥2.90b|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x1||Analyst x1||Est @ 8.02%||Est @ 6.58%||Est @ 5.58%||Est @ 4.88%||Est @ 4.39%||Est @ 4.04%||Est @ 3.8%||Est @ 3.63%|
|Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.7%||CN¥1.6k||CN¥1.7k||CN¥1.7k||CN¥1.7k||CN¥1.6k||CN¥1.6k||CN¥1.5k||CN¥1.5k||CN¥1.4k||CN¥1.4k|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥16b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.7%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥2.9b× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (7.7%– 3.2%) = CN¥67b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥67b÷ ( 1 + 7.7%)10= CN¥32b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥47b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥71.1, the company appears quite undervalued at a 37% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.SZSE:300888 Discounted Cash Flow July 27th 2022
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Winner Medical as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.909. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Winner Medical, there are three further aspects you should further research:
- Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Winner Medical (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.
- Future Earnings: How does 300888's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.