It's been a soft week for Canggang Railway Limited (HKG:2169) shares, which are down 22%. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last year have been pleasing. In that time we've seen the stock easily surpass the market return, with a gain of 35%.
In light of the stock dropping 22% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive one-year return.
View our latest analysis for Canggang Railway
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the last year, Canggang Railway actually saw its earnings per share drop 3.0%.
Sometimes companies will sacrifice EPS in the short term for longer term gains; and in that case we may be able to find other positives. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
Absent any improvement, we don't think a thirst for dividends is pushing up the Canggang Railway's share price. The slightly diminished revenue is not particularly impressive, at a glance, so that doesn't explain the share price boost.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
SEHK:2169 Earnings and Revenue Growth July 6th 2022
Take a more thorough look at Canggang Railway's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Canggang Railway, it has a TSR of 42% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Canggang Railway shareholders should be happy with the total gain of 42% over the last twelve months, including dividends. Unfortunately the share price is down 13% over the last quarter. Shorter term share price moves often don't signify much about the business itself. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Canggang Railway is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
這是疲軟的一週蒼鋼鐵路有限責任公司(HKG:2169)股價下跌22%。但這並沒有改變一個事實,即過去一年的回報一直令人滿意。在這段時間裏,我們看到該股輕鬆超過了市場回報率,上漲了35%。
鑑於該公司股價在過去一週下跌了22%,我們希望調查更長期的情況,看看基本面因素是否是該公司一年來正回報的驅動因素。
查看我們對蒼鋼鐵路的最新分析
在他的文章中格雷厄姆和多德斯維爾的超級投資者沃倫·巴菲特描述了股價並不總是理性地反映一家企業的價值。一種不完美但簡單的方法來考慮市場對一家公司的看法是如何改變的,那就是將每股收益(EPS)的變化與股價走勢進行比較。
去年,蒼鋼鐵路的每股收益實際下降了3.0%。
有時,公司會犧牲短期每股收益來換取長期收益;在這種情況下,我們可能會找到其他積極的方面。由於每股收益的變化似乎與股價的變化沒有相關性,因此值得看看其他指標。
在沒有任何改善的情況下,我們認為對股息的渴求並沒有推高蒼鋼鐵路的股價。乍一看,收入略有下降並不是特別令人印象深刻,因此這並不能解釋股價上漲的原因。
下圖描述了收益和收入隨時間的變化(通過單擊圖像來揭示確切的價值)。
聯交所:2169盈利及收入增長2022年7月6日
用這一點更徹底地審視蒼鋼鐵路的財務健康狀況免費報告其資產負債表。
那股息呢?
重要的是要考慮任何給定股票的總股東回報以及股價回報。TSR是一種回報計算,計入了現金股息的價值(假設收到的任何股息都進行了再投資),以及任何貼現融資和剝離的計算價值。因此,對於支付豐厚股息的公司來説,TSR往往比股價回報高得多。以蒼鋼鐵路為例,它最近一年的TSR為42%。這超過了我們之前提到的它的股價回報。而且,猜測股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種差異是沒有好處的!
不同的視角
蒼鋼鐵路股東應該對此感到高興總計過去12個月的收益為42%,包括股息。不幸的是,該公司股價在上個季度下跌了13%。股價的短期波動通常不會對企業本身產生太大影響。我發現,把股價作為衡量企業業績的長期指標是非常有趣的。但為了真正獲得洞察力,我們還需要考慮其他信息。即便如此,要注意的是,蒼鋼鐵路正在展示我們的投資分析中的3個警告信號,其中一條不應被忽視……
如果你喜歡和管理層一起買股票,那麼你可能會喜歡這本書免費公司名單。(提示:內部人士一直在買入這些股票)。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。