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Investing in China Energy Engineering (HKG:3996) a year ago would have delivered you a 43% gain

Simply Wall St ·  Jul 5, 2022 20:35

Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But one can do better than that by picking better than average stocks (as part of a diversified portfolio). For example, the China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited (HKG:3996) share price is up 40% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market decline of around 21% (not including dividends). If it can keep that out-performance up over the long term, investors will do very well! The longer term returns have not been as good, with the stock price only 21% higher than it was three years ago.

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

Check out our latest analysis for China Energy Engineering

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the last year, China Energy Engineering actually saw its earnings per share drop 6.1%.

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Indeed, when EPS is declining but the share price is up, it often means the market is considering other factors.

However the year on year revenue growth of 12% would help. Many businesses do go through a phase where they have to forgo some profits to drive business development, and sometimes its for the best.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

SEHK:3996 Earnings and Revenue Growth July 6th 2022

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think China Energy Engineering will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, China Energy Engineering's TSR for the last 1 year was 43%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that China Energy Engineering shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 43% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 2% per year over five years. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand China Energy Engineering better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for China Energy Engineering (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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