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Zhejiang Changhua Auto Parts (SHSE:605018) shareholders notch a 15% return over 1 year, yet earnings have been shrinking

Simply Wall St ·  Jun 16, 2022 00:23

Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But you can significantly boost your returns by picking above-average stocks. To wit, the Zhejiang Changhua Auto Parts Co., Ltd. (SHSE:605018) share price is 11% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market decline of around 11% (not including dividends) in the same period. So that should have shareholders smiling. Note that businesses generally develop over the long term, so the returns over the last year might not reflect a long term trend.

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

Check out our latest analysis for Zhejiang Changhua Auto Parts

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over the last twelve months, Zhejiang Changhua Auto Parts actually shrank its EPS by 33%.

So we don't think that investors are paying too much attention to EPS. Indeed, when EPS is declining but the share price is up, it often means the market is considering other factors.

We doubt the modest 1.9% dividend yield is doing much to support the share price. Revenue was pretty flat year on year, but maybe a closer look at the data can explain the market optimism.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

SHSE:605018 Earnings and Revenue Growth June 15th 2022

Take a more thorough look at Zhejiang Changhua Auto Parts' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Zhejiang Changhua Auto Parts' TSR for the last 1 year was 15%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Zhejiang Changhua Auto Parts shareholders should be happy with the total gain of 15% over the last twelve months, including dividends. Unfortunately the share price is down 6.9% over the last quarter. It may simply be that the share price got ahead of itself, although there may have been fundamental developments that are weighing on it. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 5 warning signs with Zhejiang Changhua Auto Parts (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CN exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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