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Johnson Electric Holdings Limited's (HKG:179) 26% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Simply Wall St ·  Jun 11, 2022 20:25

Those holding Johnson Electric Holdings Limited (HKG:179) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 26% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. But the last month did very little to improve the 52% share price decline over the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Johnson Electric Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.1x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Hong Kong, where the median P/E ratio is around 9x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

Johnson Electric Holdings hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn around. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

See our latest analysis for Johnson Electric Holdings

SEHK:179 Price Based on Past Earnings June 12th 2022 Keen to find out how analysts think Johnson Electric Holdings' future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Is There Some Growth For Johnson Electric Holdings?

Johnson Electric Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 31%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 50% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the twin analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 3.2% each year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 15% per year, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it interesting that Johnson Electric Holdings is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

What We Can Learn From Johnson Electric Holdings' P/E?

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Johnson Electric Holdings' P/E is also back up to the market median. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Johnson Electric Holdings' analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Johnson Electric Holdings you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Johnson Electric Holdings, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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