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What Wine's Link International Holdings Limited's (HKG:8509) 50% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Simply Wall St ·  Jun 10, 2022 19:07

Wine's Link International Holdings Limited (HKG:8509) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 50% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 42% over that time.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Wine's Link International Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.1x is worth a mention when the median P/E in Hong Kong is similar at about 9x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

With earnings growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Wine's Link International Holdings has been doing very well. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to wane, which has kept the P/E from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Check out our latest analysis for Wine's Link International Holdings

SEHK:8509 Price Based on Past Earnings June 10th 2022 Although there are no analyst estimates available for Wine's Link International Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Wine's Link International Holdings' Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Wine's Link International Holdings would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 39%. Still, incredibly EPS has fallen 26% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 17% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Wine's Link International Holdings' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Wine's Link International Holdings' P/E

Wine's Link International Holdings appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump getting its P/E back in line with most other companies. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Wine's Link International Holdings currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for Wine's Link International Holdings that we have uncovered.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a P/E ratio below 20x).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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