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Strong week for Lai Sun Development (HKG:488) shareholders doesn't alleviate pain of three-year loss

Simply Wall St ·  Jun 6, 2022 19:27

While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Lai Sun Development Company Limited (HKG:488) share price has gained 25% in the last three months. Meanwhile over the last three years the stock has dropped hard. Regrettably, the share price slid 63% in that period. So the improvement may be a real relief to some. While many would remain nervous, there could be further gains if the business can put its best foot forward.

The recent uptick of 15% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a lot at historical fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Lai Sun Development

Lai Sun Development wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

Over three years, Lai Sun Development grew revenue at 2.5% per year. That's not a very high growth rate considering it doesn't make profits. This uninspiring revenue growth has no doubt helped send the share price lower; it dropped 18% during the period. It can be well worth keeping an eye on growth stocks that disappoint the market, because sometimes they re-accelerate. After all, growing a business isn't easy, and the process will not always be smooth.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

SEHK:488 Earnings and Revenue Growth June 6th 2022

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Lai Sun Development

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered Lai Sun Development's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Lai Sun Development's TSR, which was a 57% drop over the last 3 years, was not as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

Although it hurts that Lai Sun Development returned a loss of 19% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 21%. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it's worse than the annualised loss of 9% over the last half decade. Whilst Baron Rothschild does tell the investor "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own", buyers would need to examine the data carefully to be comfortable that the business itself is sound. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Lai Sun Development has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

Lai Sun Development is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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