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What Swancor Advanced Materials Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:688585) 25% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Simply Wall St ·  May 24, 2022 18:37

Those holding Swancor Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688585) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 25% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. But not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 18% in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, given close to half the companies in China have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 31x, you may consider Swancor Advanced Materials as a stock to avoid entirely with its 72.2x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

For instance, Swancor Advanced Materials' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Swancor Advanced Materials

SHSE:688585 Price Based on Past Earnings May 24th 2022 Although there are no analyst estimates available for Swancor Advanced Materials, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Swancor Advanced Materials would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 58%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 70% in total over the last three years. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 37% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it concerning that Swancor Advanced Materials is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Final Word

Swancor Advanced Materials' P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Swancor Advanced Materials revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Swancor Advanced Materials (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have grown earnings strongly and trade on P/E's below 20x.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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