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Grand Brilliance Group Holdings Limited's (HKG:8372) 42% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Simply Wall St ·  {{timeTz}}

Grand Brilliance Group Holdings Limited (HKG:8372) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 42% gain in the last month alone. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 24% is also fairly reasonable.

Following the firm bounce in price, given close to half the companies in Hong Kong have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 8x, you may consider Grand Brilliance Group Holdings as a stock to avoid entirely with its 15.4x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Grand Brilliance Group Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Grand Brilliance Group Holdings

SEHK:8372 Price Based on Past Earnings May 19th 2022 We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Grand Brilliance Group Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Grand Brilliance Group Holdings' Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Grand Brilliance Group Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 44%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 44% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 17% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

In light of this, it's alarming that Grand Brilliance Group Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Grand Brilliance Group Holdings' P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Grand Brilliance Group Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You always need to take note of risks, for example - Grand Brilliance Group Holdings has 5 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

You might be able to find a better investment than Grand Brilliance Group Holdings. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a P/E below 20x (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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