In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks , it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Hang Lung Group Limited (HKG:10), since the last five years saw the share price fall 56%. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 18% in the last three months. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 17% in the same timeframe.
Since Hang Lung Group has shed HK$926m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
See our latest analysis for Hang Lung Group
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During five years of share price growth, Hang Lung Group moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.
The steady dividend doesn't really explain why the share price is down. However, revenue has declined at a compound annual rate of 7.2% per year. With dividends up, but revenue down, some investors might be concluding that the company is no longer growing.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).SEHK:10 Earnings and Revenue Growth May 16th 2022
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. This free interactive report on Hang Lung Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Hang Lung Group's TSR for the last 5 years was -45%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Although it hurts that Hang Lung Group returned a loss of 20% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 22%. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it's worse than the annualised loss of 8% over the last half decade. While some investors do well specializing in buying companies that are struggling (but nonetheless undervalued), don't forget that Buffett said that 'turnarounds seldom turn'. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Hang Lung Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Hang Lung Group you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.
Hang Lung Group is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.