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While shareholders of DRDGOLD (NYSE:DRD) are in the black over 3 years, those who bought a week ago aren't so fortunate

Simply Wall St ·  May 13, 2022 07:54

DRDGOLD Limited (NYSE:DRD) shareholders might be rather concerned because the share price has dropped 32% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been very strong. In three years the stock price has launched 248% higher: a great result. It's not uncommon to see a share price retrace a bit, after a big gain. If the business can perform well for years to come, then the recent drop could be an opportunity.

While the stock has fallen 18% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for DRDGOLD

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

DRDGOLD became profitable within the last three years. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

NYSE:DRD Earnings Per Share Growth May 13th 2022

We know that DRDGOLD has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? This free interactive report on DRDGOLD's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, DRDGOLD's TSR for the last 3 years was 290%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that DRDGOLD shareholders are down 39% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 9.4%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 14%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand DRDGOLD better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that DRDGOLD is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those makes us a bit uncomfortable...

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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