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Some Confidence Is Lacking In Sinomax Group Limited (HKG:1418) As Shares Slide 26%

Simply Wall St ·  May 8, 2022 20:16

Sinomax Group Limited (HKG:1418) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 26% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. Indeed, the recent drop has reduced its annual gain to a relatively sedate 2.6% over the last twelve months.

Although its price has dipped substantially, Sinomax Group's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 18.2x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Sinomax Group over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Sinomax Group

SEHK:1418 Price Based on Past Earnings May 9th 2022 Although there are no analyst estimates available for Sinomax Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Sinomax Group's Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Sinomax Group's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 74%. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 17% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it concerning that Sinomax Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Sinomax Group's P/E?

A significant share price dive has done very little to deflate Sinomax Group's very lofty P/E. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Sinomax Group revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Sinomax Group (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Sinomax Group. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that sit on P/E's below 20x and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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