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The three-year underlying earnings growth at Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank (SZSE:002958) is promising, but the shareholders are still in the red over that time

Simply Wall St ·  May 6, 2022 20:06

If you are building a properly diversified stock portfolio, the chances are some of your picks will perform badly. But the last three years have been particularly tough on longer term Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002958) shareholders. Unfortunately, they have held through a 63% decline in the share price in that time. And over the last year the share price fell 25%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. Even worse, it's down 14% in about a month, which isn't fun at all. But this could be related to poor market conditions -- stocks are down 9.6% in the same time.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

Check out our latest analysis for Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Although the share price is down over three years, Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank actually managed to grow EPS by 6.2% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. On the other hand, the uninspired reduction in revenue, at 9.9% each year, may have shareholders ditching the stock. In that case, the current EPS might be viewed by some as difficult to sustain.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

SZSE:002958 Earnings and Revenue Growth May 6th 2022

Take a more thorough look at Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank's TSR for the last 3 years was -59%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

The last twelve months weren't great for Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank shares, which performed worse than the market, costing holders 23%, including dividends. Meanwhile, the broader market slid about 14%, likely weighing on the stock. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 17% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last three years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.

We will like Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CN exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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