Repeats With No Changes
Feb 17 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Is Expected to Cut Its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 Basis Points To 3.75% on Wednesday. the RBNZ Has Eased by 125 Bps Since August, Aiming to Support a Sluggish Economy and Curb Rising Unemployment.
RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr Has Signalled a 50 Bps Cut, and Recent Data Has Done Little to Alter That Outlook. 32 of 33 Economists in the Feb 10-13 Reuters Poll Expect a 50 Bps Cut, With Just One Forecasting a Smaller 25 Bps Move.
The RBNZ Made Its Stance Clear at November's Policy Meeting, Saying the Policy-Induced Economic Slowdown Was Necessary to Curb Inflation, Which Had Remained Persistent, but Looking Forward It Would Be Appropriate to Continue Stepping Back From Restrictive Monetary Policy.
With Inflation at 2.2% in Q4 - Within the 1%-3% Target Range - the RBNZ Has Room to Ease Further. Another 75 Bps of Easing Is Anticipated in 2025 (After Wednesday) as the Economy Struggles Out of Recession.
Nzd/USD Has Had a Buoyant Start to 2025, Up 2.3%, and Whilst a 50 Bps Cut Is Factored in, a More Dovish Than Anticipated Statement May See Nzd Turn Lower Towards 0.5600 Support. AUD/Nzd Will Also Be Worth Watching With the Reserve Bank of Australia's Rate Decision on Tuesday Increasing Potential for Divergence in the Two Countries' OCR Outlooks.
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(James Connell Is a Reuters Market Analyst. the Views Expressed Are His Own. Editing by Ewen Chew)
((James.connell@Thomsonreuters.com))
