Among the top five long positions, S&P 500 ETF put options ($SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$, PUT) ranked first, with a position of 16.29 million shares, the market value of the position is about $6.96 billion, accounting for 2.40% of the portfolio, the number of positions rose by 22.35% from the previous quarter. $マイクロソフト(MSFT.US)$came in second, with a position of 21.84 million shares, a position with a market capita...
Is now a good time to add bonds to ur portfolio? I think not as the market is quite volatile now & I think that u may benefit more from a swing trading instead. However, it is up to u: It's early of the Oct 2022 & stocks already showing signs of rallying?! I never expected it to be so fast for a temporary rallying... (my opinion)It's really too fast & this rally may go quite high if it started so early...= but, who knows... Actually, I think...
$BHP Group Ltd(BHP.AU)$ Overseas mines carrying out yuan settlement for spot trades at ports. BHP hailed recently its first shipment of yuan-based spot trade iron ore to dock at a port in East China's Shandong Province. The arrival marks the official beginning of BHP's Shanghai branch, a wholly-owned subsidiary, since it was recently established to better serve clients in China, the largest iron ore importer in the world. ...
Inflation – also known as the silent assassin of cash or deposits – is raging across the globe. This phenomenon seems to be a trend everywhere, from the consequences of the excessive money printing from the already buoyant economy of the US to the resilient sector of the UK. For instance, the US inflation for April came in at 8.3% while the CPI for UK rose by 9% in the 12 months to April 2022. Conventional macro-economic t...
The CPI for March is set to come out on Tuesday, setting the stage for a nerve-racking week as investors are keeping a close eye on inflation. Predicting inflation may be one of the most crucial tasks for suitable investments since runaway inflation will depress bond prices and stock market performances when continuous rate hikes by the Fed are priced in by the market. There are two versions of the CPIs that measure inflation from diff...
Wells Fargo looked at 15 major asset classes and calculated which ones did the best and worst during inflationary periods since 2000. Here's the best asset to own when inflation. Oil's inflation-times rise is also more than any other major asset class the bank looked at. Oil's gain during inflationary periods is also roughly three-times higher than the average 12% rise of all 15 assets Wells Fargo studied. $United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US)$a major ETF t...
DJBiggz :
I agree completely Molly. times and trends are constantly shifting. I'd love to see this compared to other financial institutions. also the numbers over the past five years rather than twenty.
Dons hobby :
Molly In your opinion What do you think will happen and what do you think is the best thing to do. I have been here since late Nov. I am still pretty new to this that is why I ask because I personally have no idea. Thanks Do n
Central banks could drive stocks higher all the way through to the middle of 2023, but that would create a serious economic risk when the bubble bursts, according to Stifel. "We calculate that a bubble driven by current central bank real yield repression may take the$SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$to 5,500 mid-2022 and 6,750 mid-2023, creating a systemic risk when it bursts," Stifel says. Real rates saw a jump higher yesterday, but are still historically low. The 10-year inflation-protected$iシェアーズ 米国物価連動国債 ETF(TIP.US)$is at -0.98%. There have been just two equity bubbles in Wall Street's history: 1928-1928 and 1998-1999 and "neither ended well for stock or economic conditions," Stifel says. Now, a third bubble is "percolating," the team adds. The question is whether the Federal Reserve will lean against the risk of a bubble or just let asset prices rip, "magnifying financial risk when it bursts." What can the Fed do? Watching the 10-year real yield is key to assessing market risk and the possibility of an S&P correction, Stifel says. Stifel says that to forestall risk, the Fed may "tilt more hawkish while at the same time the Biden/Yellen duo may support the stronger dollar ($USD(USDindex.FX)$) that accompanies such a Fed shift (a strong dollar subdues energy & food inflation in a supply-constrained inflation environment and improves the chances that BBB overcomes inflation concerns among Senate moderates, while also affecting the timing of a reconciliation bill to lift the U.S. debt ceiling)." "This combination of factors may raise U.S. real yields and lower the S&P 500 P/E." Watch Cyclicals and Defensives. Cyclical stocks have led the market rebound from the pandemic low on an equal-weight basis. Actions like the above by the Fed and administration would cut into the reflation that favors Cyclicals over Defensives. Stifel recommends going overweight some defensive stocks in sectors like Utilities ($公益事業セレクト・セクター SPDR ファンド(XLU.US)$), Consumer Staples ($生活必需品セレクト・セクター SPDR ファンド(XLP.US)$) and Health Care ($ヘルスケア・セレクト・セクター SPDR ファンド(XLV.US)$) for the current quarter and Q1 2022. They underweight some cyclical subsectors in Financials ($金融セレクト・セクター SPDR ファンド(XLF.US)$), Energy ($エネルギー・セレクト・セクター SPDR ファンド(XLE.US)$) and Materials ($素材セレクト・セクター SPDR ファンド(XLB.US)$). BMO says that the still-hot tech sector can outperform next year, even with rising rates.
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Brain Gomes :
There's already a bubble, in overpriced growth/tech stocks and related crap like NFTs and shitcoins, and it's already a systemic risk.
Oavbab :
Central bankers are political appointees. They will do what their masters demand of them, which is to print money and pump assets regardless of larger costs to society.
$マイクロソフト(MSFT.US)$ came in second, with a position of 21.84 million shares, a position with a market capita...
I think not as the market is quite volatile now & I think that u may benefit more from a swing trading instead .
However, it is up to u :
It's early of the Oct 2022 & stocks already showing signs of rallying ?! I never expected it to be so fast for a temporary rallying... (my opinion) It's really too fast & this rally may go quite high if it started so early... = but, who knows ...
Actually, I think...
Overseas mines carrying out yuan settlement for spot trades at ports.
BHP hailed recently its first shipment of yuan-based spot trade iron ore to dock at a port in East China's Shandong Province.
The arrival marks the official beginning of BHP's Shanghai branch, a wholly-owned subsidiary, since it was recently established to better serve clients in China, the largest iron ore importer in the world. ...
This phenomenon seems to be a trend everywhere, from the consequences of the excessive money printing from the already buoyant economy of the US to the resilient sector of the UK. For instance, the US inflation for April came in at 8.3% while the CPI for UK rose by 9% in the 12 months to April 2022.
Conventional macro-economic t...
There are two versions of the CPIs that measure inflation from diff...
Here's the best asset to own when inflation.
Oil's inflation-times rise is also more than any other major asset class the bank looked at. Oil's gain during inflationary periods is also roughly three-times higher than the average 12% rise of all 15 assets Wells Fargo studied.
$United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US)$ a major ETF t...
$iシェアーズ コア米国総合債券ETF(AGG.US)$ $iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return ETN(DJP.US)$ $SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF(BIL.US)$
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Large caps, total market ETFs keep adding
The $インベスコQQQ 信託シリーズ1(QQQ.US)$ led inflows on the period, with $1.16 billion added, while the $iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF(MTUM.US)$ and $バンガード・トータル・ストック・マーケットETF(VTI.US)$added $996 million and $855 million, respectively.
Fears over inflation in the U.S. sent some assets abroad, with the $Ishares Trust Core Msci Eafe Etf(IEFA.US)$ taking in $822 million.
Defensive ETFs also peppered the top inflows list, with inflation in mind. The $SPDR ゴールド・シェア(GLD.US)$ took in $851 million, while the $iシェアーズ 米国物価連動国債 ETF(TIP.US)$ added $615 million.
Growth, junk bonds hammered
The $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$ was the biggest loser from flows in the period, as investors pulled nearly $2.5 billion from the oldest ETF in the U.S. The $iシェアーズ・コア S&P 500 ETF(IVV.US)$ found itself losing $706 million, as investors lessened their exposure to the index.
High yield bonds were not in vogue either. The $iシェアーズ iBoxx 米ドル建てハイイールド社債 ETF(HYG.US)$ saw $1.13 billion in outflows, while the $SPDR ブルームバーグ・ハイ・イールド債券 ETF(JNK.US)$ lost $454 million.
Source: ETF.com
"We calculate that a bubble driven by current central bank real yield repression may take the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$to 5,500 mid-2022 and 6,750 mid-2023, creating a systemic risk when it bursts," Stifel says.
Real rates saw a jump higher yesterday, but are still historically low. The 10-year inflation-protected $iシェアーズ 米国物価連動国債 ETF(TIP.US)$is at -0.98%.
There have been just two equity bubbles in Wall Street's history: 1928-1928 and 1998-1999 and "neither ended well for stock or economic conditions," Stifel says.
Now, a third bubble is "percolating," the team adds.
The question is whether the Federal Reserve will lean against the risk of a bubble or just let asset prices rip, "magnifying financial risk when it bursts."
What can the Fed do? Watching the 10-year real yield is key to assessing market risk and the possibility of an S&P correction, Stifel says.
Stifel says that to forestall risk, the Fed may "tilt more hawkish while at the same time the Biden/Yellen duo may support the stronger dollar ( $USD(USDindex.FX)$) that accompanies such a Fed shift (a strong dollar subdues energy & food inflation in a supply-constrained inflation environment and improves the chances that BBB overcomes inflation concerns among Senate moderates, while also affecting the timing of a reconciliation bill to lift the U.S. debt ceiling)."
"This combination of factors may raise U.S. real yields and lower the S&P 500 P/E."
Watch Cyclicals and Defensives. Cyclical stocks have led the market rebound from the pandemic low on an equal-weight basis.
Actions like the above by the Fed and administration would cut into the reflation that favors Cyclicals over Defensives.
Stifel recommends going overweight some defensive stocks in sectors like Utilities ( $公益事業セレクト・セクター SPDR ファンド(XLU.US)$), Consumer Staples ( $生活必需品セレクト・セクター SPDR ファンド(XLP.US)$) and Health Care ( $ヘルスケア・セレクト・セクター SPDR ファンド(XLV.US)$) for the current quarter and Q1 2022.
They underweight some cyclical subsectors in Financials ( $金融セレクト・セクター SPDR ファンド(XLF.US)$), Energy ( $エネルギー・セレクト・セクター SPDR ファンド(XLE.US)$) and Materials ( $素材セレクト・セクター SPDR ファンド(XLB.US)$).
BMO says that the still-hot tech sector can outperform next year, even with rising rates.
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