$アファーム・ホールディングス(AFRM.US)$ Affirm has experienced a significant correction over the past several months. The open space has almost been completely filled. If the long-term rally is to stay in place, then we could see some buyers stepping back into the picture soon. Check out my previous post that called out the bearishness before the true correction was confirmed. Affirm appears to be finding some demand near the long-term support level I have highlighted. This could be a good place to buy the d...
All Eyes on the Upcoming Fed Meeting With interest rates and inflation being the main concern for investors these days, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision coming this Wednesday. Many analysts are calling for a resurgence in inflation. While the Federal Reserve has been standing by their word, saying that inflation is under control and we are on the path towards rate cuts this year. If the Fed believes that inflation is no longer...
BelleWeather :
I think proper portfolio positioning vis a vis inflation is important. The concern I have is stagflation, so I’m trying to be defensive to that. This is difficult. And timing the market is impossible and crazy-making, so I personally am taking each day as it comes. I don’t think anyone is going to sell off over these concerns, and Powell is not about to fan those flames either!
SpyderCallスレ主BelleWeather:
They might not sell over these concerns. But when these variables are present, then any negative catalyst will likely catalyze a selloff. For example, if we get bad rhetoric from Powell next week, then we might see extra volatility. That being said, in the current environment, any selloff will be a good buying opportunity until something breaks in the economy.
SpyderCallスレ主BelleWeather:
So far, wages and employment numbers have held up, so stagflation is not a concern until inflation picks back up. With the way oil and gasoline prices have been climbing, we could possibly see a stagflationary environment soon, but not yet. Things are almost perfect in the economic data currently. We are in a goldilocks zone for the Fed right now. And if things get worse, then the Fed has already mentioned cutting rates. That would be even more accomodative for equities as the "Fed Put" will be in play at that point. So, if we do see stagflation, it shouldn't last long as the Fed will accommodate markets when the inflation, wages, or employment situation changes negatively.
BelleWeather :
Agreed on the Goldilocks zone vis a vis the Fed mandate save one issue - the reserve bank balance is almost out - won’t they have to move to correct that?
SpyderCallスレ主BelleWeather:
They have been greatly decreasing the balance sheet since march 2022. This is done through selling treasury bonds or mortgage securities. Short-term treasuries, like bills, have been the biggest culprits for the runoff of the balance sheet. This has been unwinding the massive amount of asset purchases since the 2008 financial crisis. They purchased all of these assets back then as a form of quantative easing to boost the economy. Right now, they are selling treasury notes at sky-high yields to provide liquidity to banks essentially. This is putting more liabilities onto the balance sheet, which brings the balance down. I don't think the balance sheet runoff is such a big deal at the moment. Once the economy is showing signs of trouble, then I think we will need to worry about the Fed balance sheet. If they start buying assets, essentially quantative easing, then they might think that there is weakness in the economy. You might think that with the Fed balance falling like it is, then long-term treasuries should be falling along with the balance. But that has not been the case since last November as these treasuries have been climbing. This tells me that the balance sheet is now falling because the Fed is adding liquidity through short-term bond sales, which inject liquidity into the economy, which is good for an economy and equities.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$ An Overheated Rally The S&P 500 has been on a very strong rally for several months and is showing no signs of slowing down yet. Investors and analysts alike have been calling for a correction over the past few weeks. The S&P 500 is showing signs of overextended price action and extreme overbought conditions on the weekly candles. These are some of the technical reasons why traders have been cautious recently. But always remember that the mar...
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BelleWeather :
Bull markets tend to last a long time compared to bear, and the interim has only gotten longer in recent decades. I’ve just started trading (was buy and hold only until a friend was successfully swing trading my picks, so I joined in, practicing with crypto, and playing options leading up to earnings, and turned it into a game of making the number go up .) But I think this is a failing of TA - it isn’t meaningful in this context. I am learning that it is very much so moment to moment for entry & exit points, though! There are many reasons that the bull will continue, only fears that it won’t. This is the fun part, I intend to enjoy it. (And looking back, market PE isn’t so high compared to that over the past 5-7 years.
All Also TakenBelleWeather:
swing trading is fun but you don't make much money with it compared to the risk to have to take, and the work you have to do :)
BelleWeatherAll Also Taken:
Yes, I actually stopped doing so in crypto when I analyzed and saw how much upside I missed! And it’s a lot of work, true! It helps me to follow along with people who explain things here and in other forums. Helps me guide my thoughts, etc. But mostly I look at volume, liquidity and trend - maybe support and resistance to optimize entry or exit when reallocating capital. And that’s how I swing trade, too, now - use some TA, preferably someone’s I trust more than my own, hahaha, to make changes to a portfolio while preserving the maximum capital. But the sad truth is, I might simply be better off not trading at all. In crypto for certain, I did well, but would have hit all targets had I not missed 250% of gains by swapping tokens and coins. Since I don’t have infinite capital, and am prone to so many mistakes, trading stocks is more a side effect than the plan. Options, I think, are the happy medium, if used as a tool, not a gamble (though I’ve done that too, haha.) They allow shorter time frames and are less subject to certain errors and battling algorithms; the Greeks are fun, too.
Global X China Biotech Innovation ETF $CHB Global X MSCI China Communication Services ETF $CHIC Global X MSCI China Consumer Staples ETF $CHIS Global X MSCI China Energy ETF $CHIE Global X MSCI China Financials ETF $CHIX Global X MSCI China Health Care ETF $CHIH Global X MSCI China Industrials ETF $CHII Global X MSCI China Information Technology ETF $CHIK Global X MSCI China Materials ETF $CHIM Global X MSC...
Despite MSCI's high P/E ratio, investors remain bullish, potentially risking their investments. The high earnings growth may eventually impact the share price, posing a risk to potential investors.
MSCI's share price reflects its EPS growth, indicating stable market sentiment. The company's ability to improve its bottom line indicates potential growth, though a few warning signs exist.
Pre-Market Stock Movers Gapping up $AMCエンターテインメント クラスA(AMC.US)$stock rose 7.3% after the cinema chain announced that it garnered about $325.5 million in new equity capital through the sale of 40 million shares. $エッツィー(ETSY.US)$stock rose 4.5% after Wolfe Research upgraded the online marketplace to 'outperform' from 'peer perform', expecting growth to improve when the economy strengthens. $カーニバル(CCL.US)$stock r...
MSCIに関するコメント
Affirm has experienced a significant correction over the past several months. The open space has almost been completely filled. If the long-term rally is to stay in place, then we could see some buyers stepping back into the picture soon. Check out my previous post that called out the bearishness before the true correction was confirmed.
Affirm appears to be finding some demand near the long-term support level I have highlighted. This could be a good place to buy the d...
Bullish Diamond Candlestick Pattern
It looks a little risky as the long-term trend is down. But I believe this is a good investment at these prices. The price action is exiting the diamond pattern in a bullish fashion.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$$SPDR ダウ工業株平均 ETF(DIA.US)$$インベスコQQQ 信託シリーズ1(QQQ.US)$$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK.US)$$iシェアーズ MSCI エマージング・マーケット ETF(EEM.US)$$MSCI(MSCI.US)$$恐怖指数 CBOE Volatility S&P 500(.VIX.US)$$FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index(.KLSE.MY)$$Hang Seng Index(800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index(800700.HK)$
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Should We Be Worried About Inflation?
With interest rates and inflation being the main concern for investors these days, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision coming this Wednesday.
Many analysts are calling for a resurgence in inflation. While the Federal Reserve has been standing by their word, saying that inflation is under control and we are on the path towards rate cuts this year.
If the Fed believes that inflation is no longer...
When is The Next Correction?
An Overheated Rally
The S&P 500 has been on a very strong rally for several months and is showing no signs of slowing down yet. Investors and analysts alike have been calling for a correction over the past few weeks.
The S&P 500 is showing signs of overextended price action and extreme overbought conditions on the weekly candles. These are some of the technical reasons why traders have been cautious recently. But always remember that the mar...
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