Median rent price falls to $1,967/month in November marking its largest decline in 3 years, according to Redfin. The median asking rent price fell 2.1% year-over-year just after breaking above $2,000/month. Meanwhile, housing starts skyrocketed by 14.8% in November to their highest level since May 2022. These numbers have yet to account for the 100+ basis point drop in interest rates from their peak. The "Fed pivot" is spreading into housing. $NYダウ(.DJI.US)$$ジロー・グループ(Z.US)$$LTCプロパティーズ(LTC.US)$$マセリッチ(MAC.US)$
Pending home sales just hit their lowest level in history. In October, US pending home sales fell 1.5% putting sales down 6.6% over the last year. This also marks the 23rd STRAIGHT decline in US pending home sales. To put this in perspective, pending home sales are more than 10% BELOW what they were in 2010. They are also ~3% below the pandemic low when the global economy was in a lockdown. All as mortgage demand is at its lowest levels since 1994. The housing market is coming to a complete halt...
The economy is hanging tough in part because of the graceful adjustment of asset prices to Fed tightening. While overvalued stock, bond and real estate markets have bent, they have not broken. Americans remain wealthier than before the pandemic, and key to why they keep spending. $ジロー・グループ(Z.US)$$アーマー・レジデンシャル・リート(ARR.US)$$マセリッチ(MAC.US)$
A record ~40% of all US homes currently don't have mortgages. At first, this seems like great news, but it really just emphasizes how unaffordable this market is. Currently, a record ~35% of housing market transactions are all cash purchases. In other words, this market is becoming only affordable for those who are buying with cash. As interest rates hit 20-year highs and home prices are up 30%+ since 2020, affordability is only getting worse. We have an affordability crisis. $ジロー・グループ(Z.US)$$LTCプロパティーズ(LTC.US)$$マセリッチ(MAC.US)$$アーマー・レジデンシャル・リート(ARR.US)$
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The median asking rent price fell 2.1% year-over-year just after breaking above $2,000/month.
Meanwhile, housing starts skyrocketed by 14.8% in November to their highest level since May 2022.
These numbers have yet to account for the 100+ basis point drop in interest rates from their peak.
The "Fed pivot" is spreading into housing.
$NYダウ(.DJI.US)$ $ジロー・グループ(Z.US)$ $LTCプロパティーズ(LTC.US)$ $マセリッチ(MAC.US)$
The Rust Belt.
Hartford, Rochester, New Haven, and Milwaukee have all seen 8% appreciation since the bubble peaked in mid-2022.
Now who saw that coming?
$ジロー・グループ(Z.US)$ $マセリッチ(MAC.US)$ $ミッド・アメリカ・アパートメント・コミュニティーズ(MAA.US)$ $アーマー・レジデンシャル・リート(ARR.US)$
In October, US pending home sales fell 1.5% putting sales down 6.6% over the last year.
This also marks the 23rd STRAIGHT decline in US pending home sales.
To put this in perspective, pending home sales are more than 10% BELOW what they were in 2010.
They are also ~3% below the pandemic low when the global economy was in a lockdown.
All as mortgage demand is at its lowest levels since 1994.
The housing market is coming to a complete halt...
$ジロー・グループ(Z.US)$ $アーマー・レジデンシャル・リート(ARR.US)$ $マセリッチ(MAC.US)$
At first, this seems like great news, but it really just emphasizes how unaffordable this market is.
Currently, a record ~35% of housing market transactions are all cash purchases.
In other words, this market is becoming only affordable for those who are buying with cash.
As interest rates hit 20-year highs and home prices are up 30%+ since 2020, affordability is only getting worse.
We have an affordability crisis.
$ジロー・グループ(Z.US)$ $LTCプロパティーズ(LTC.US)$ $マセリッチ(MAC.US)$ $アーマー・レジデンシャル・リート(ARR.US)$
$アーマー・レジデンシャル・リート(ARR.US)$ $マセリッチ(MAC.US)$
Something needs to be done to improve housing affordability.
$ジロー・グループ(Z.US)$ $LTCプロパティーズ(LTC.US)$ $マセリッチ(MAC.US)$ $ミッド・アメリカ・アパートメント・コミュニティーズ(MAA.US)$
$アーマー・レジデンシャル・リート(ARR.US)$ $マセリッチ(MAC.US)$
Is a new bull market forming for housing prices?
Wow.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$ $インベスコQQQ 信託シリーズ1(QQQ.US)$ $アーマー・レジデンシャル・リート(ARR.US)$ $LTCプロパティーズ(LTC.US)$ $ミッド・アメリカ・アパートメント・コミュニティーズ(MAA.US)$ $マセリッチ(MAC.US)$
2. 53% of homes require income of $125K+ to afford
3. Average 30Y mortgage at 7%
4. Mortgage demand lowest since 1995
5. Median rent payment hits $2000/mo
This is the least affordable housing market in history.
$アーマー・レジデンシャル・リート(ARR.US)$ $LTCプロパティーズ(LTC.US)$ $マセリッチ(MAC.US)$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$ $NYダウ(.DJI.US)$ $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US)$
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