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LTCプロパティーズに関するコメント
Open hymer time
How can mortgage demand be down even as rates are down 130+ basis points from their recent highs?
The answer to this question is that the effective outstanding mortgage rate is 3.7%.
90% of borrowers currently have interest rates below 5%.
Even if mortgage rates fell to 5%, the vast majority of borrowers would still have a financial disincentive to sell.
Particularly as investors accounted for many of the...
October home prices post biggest gain of 2023, despite higher mortgage rates, says S&P Case-Shiller
- That’s a jump from the 4% annual increase in September and marks the strongest annual gain seen in 2023.
- Among the top 20 cities, Detroit reported the largest year-over-year gain in home prices at 8.1% in October.
Home prices rose 4.8% nationally in October com...
Properties are selling for less than half of what they were worth just 5 years ago.
A downtown Los Angeles office building that sold for $92.5 million in 2018 just sold for $44.7 million.
2 days ago, the Aon Center, Los Angeles' third largest building, sold for 45% less than its last purchase price in 2014.
All as real estate giants like WeWork file bankruptcy and flood the market with supply.
The strength of housing continues to mask the weakness...
The median asking rent price fell 2.1% year-over-year just after breaking above $2,000/month.
Meanwhile, housing starts skyrocketed by 14.8% in November to their highest level since May 2022.
These numbers have yet to account for the 100+ basis point drop in interest rates from their peak.
The "Fed pivot" is spreading into housing.
$NYダウ(.DJI.US)$ $ジロー グループ クラスC(Z.US)$$LTCプロパティーズ(LTC.US)$$マセリッチ(MAC.US)$
In October, US pending home sales fell 1.5% putting sales down 6.6% over the last year.
This also marks the 23rd STRAIGHT decline in US pending home sales.
To put this in perspective, pending home sales are more than 10% BELOW what they were in 2010.
They are also ~3% below the pandemic low when the global economy was in a lockdown.
All as mortgage demand is at its lowest levels since 1994.
The housing market is coming to a complete halt...
Real home prices in the US are currently almost 10% MORE expensive than they were in 2008.
This means that even on an inflation adjusted basis, home prices have never been more expensive.
Meanwhile, housing supply is 40% below the historical average.
All while mortgage demand is at its lowest since 1994 and the median homebuyer now has a $3000/mo payment.
Truly historic times.
$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$$アーマー・レジデンシャル・リート(ARR.US)$$LTCプロパティーズ(LTC.US)$
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September; New all-time High
At first, this seems like great news, but it really just emphasizes how unaffordable this market is.
Currently, a record ~35% of housing market transactions are all cash purchases.
In other words, this market is becoming only affordable for those who are buying with cash.
As interest rates hit 20-year highs and home prices are up 30%+ since 2020, affordability is only getting worse.
We have an affordability crisis.
$ジロー グループ クラスC(Z.US)$$LTCプロパティーズ(LTC.US)$$マセリッチ(MAC.US)$$アーマー・レジデンシャル・リート(ARR.US)$
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