The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (HKG:1138), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its annual results last week. COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation missed earnings this time around, with CN¥22b revenue coming in 2.5% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.70 also fell short of expectations by 13%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation's seven analysts is for revenues of CN¥27.2b in 2024. This reflects a huge 23% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 81% to CN¥1.27. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥27.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.27 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of HK$10.63, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation at HK$12.66 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$9.47. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation shareholders.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 23% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 9.7% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 0.3% per year. So it's clear with the acceleration in growth, COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation is expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Their estimates also suggest that COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation's revenue is expected to perform better than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$10.63, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation that you should be aware of.
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先週、COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (HKG: 1138)が財務結果を発表したところ、アナリストたちはあまりにも強気だったかもしれません。COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportationは今回の決算で、アナリストがモデル化したものよりも2.5%収益がCN¥22億に不足しました。また、一株当たりの法定利益(CN¥0.70)は、期待に13%届かなかったです。アナリストたちは通常、各決算報告において予測を更新します。その予測から、企業の見通しが変わったか、または気にする必要のある新しい懸念事項があるかを判断することができます。読者の皆様には、最新の法定予測を集計し、COSCO SHIPPINGエナジートランスポーテーションについて、最新の決算後アナリストたちが考えを変えたかどうかを見ていただけると嬉しいです。
最新の結果を踏まえて、COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportationの7人のアナリストのコンセンサス予測は、2024年にCN¥27.2bの収益を見込んでいます。これは、過去12か月間に比べて収益が23%大幅に改善したことを反映しています。法定一株当たり利益はCN¥1.27に急増すると予想されています。しかしながら、最新の利益前予測では、アナリストたちはCN¥27.1bの収益とCN¥1.27の一株当たり利益を予想していたところです。コンセンサスアナリストたちは、これらの結果において企業に対する見通しが変化するようなものがないことを示しており、予測に大きな変化がなかったと言えます。
これらの予測は興味深いものですが、COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportationの過去のパフォーマンスや同業他社と比較して、大まかな見通しを描くことが有用である場合があります。最新の評価によれば、2024年末までの23%の年間収益成長予測は、過去5年間の9.7%年間成長よりも著しく高速であることが明確です。一方、我々のデータによれば、同業他社(アナリストによるカバーを受けた)は、年間収益が0.3%減少すると予測されています。したがって、成長の加速により、COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportationは、広い業界よりも意味のある成長を遂げることが期待されています。
結論
明らかな結論としては、最近の時期において、ビジネスの見通しに大きな変化はなく、アナリストたちは以前の見積もりに従って、収益予想を一定に保っているということです。幸いなことに、彼らは収益の見積もりを再確認し、期待に沿って追跡していることを示唆しています。また、彼らの見積もりによれば、COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportationの収益は、より広い業界よりも良好なパフォーマンスを見せることが期待されています。コンセンサスの価格目標はHK $ 10.63で一定であり、最新の見積もりは彼らの価格目標に影響を与えるほどではありませんでした。
ただし、会社の収益の長期的な軌道は、来年よりもより重要です。COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportationについて2026年までの予測があります。それらをスペシャリストが無料で提供しています。
しかし、あまりにも熱狂的になる前に、COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportationに関して知っておく必要がある2つの警告事項を発見しました。