Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas on Tuesday noted both product and market issues as he slashed target price and FY24 earnings estimates for EV giant $Tesla (TSLA.US)$.
Analyst Rating: The analyst cut the target price from $345 to $320 while maintaining an 'overweight' rating.
Tesla Thesis: In a note, the analyst noted the several downsides plaguing Tesla at the minute including dwindling EV demand, older product line-up as compared to other automakers, heavy competition and price war in China, and not the least, the increasing popularity of hybrids over battery electric vehicles in the company's primary market of U.S..
"If there was ever a time for Tesla to potentially post a GAAP EBIT loss in the auto business, it may be this year," Jonas wrote.
The analyst said that he expects the EV giant's first-half results for the year will fail to meet expectations with GAAP operating margins in the 2-3% range. After taking a severe hit on profitability, Jonas expects Tesla to pull back on the price cuts it has been employing to increase sales and instead shift focus to defending margins and cash flow.
The analyst also altered his estimates for FY24.
Change In Estimates: Jonas decreased his unit volume estimate for FY24 to under 2 million units, implying just over 10% growth YoY. The analyst now forecasts an auto gross margin of 11.4% for the year, down from his previous estimate of 13.2%.
But despite this, the analyst remains overweight on Tesla as he continues to deem it an AI company. However, for the EV giant to get credit as an AI company, it must first stabilize its earnings in the auto business, he said.
"We do not believe Tesla will get credit as an Al company as long as core auto earnings are being revised down. This process may take a few more quarters to see through, over which time our $100 bear case may be 'in play," he wrote.
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摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯周二下调了电动汽车巨头的目标价格和24财年的收益预期，指出了产品和市场问题 $特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$。
分析师评级：分析师将目标价格从345美元下调至320美元，同时维持 “增持” 评级。
特斯拉论文：分析师在一份报告中指出了目前困扰特斯拉的几个缺点，包括电动汽车需求的减少、与其他汽车制造商相比产品阵容较旧、中国激烈的竞争和价格战，以及同样重要的是，混合动力汽车比电池电动汽车在该公司的主要美国市场越来越受欢迎。
乔纳斯写道：“如果特斯拉有机会公布汽车业务的GAAP息税前利润亏损，那可能是今年。”
这位分析师表示，他预计这家电动汽车巨头今年的上半年业绩将无法达到预期，GAAP营业利润率在2-3％之间。在盈利能力受到严重打击之后，乔纳斯预计，特斯拉将撤回其为增加销售而采取的降价措施，转而将重点转移到捍卫利润率和现金流上。
该分析师还修改了他对24财年的估计。
估计值的变化：乔纳斯将24财年的单位销量估计下调至200万辆以下，这意味着同比增长略高于10％。这位分析师现在预测今年的汽车毛利率为11.4％，低于他之前估计的13.2％。
但尽管如此，这位分析师仍然对特斯拉持过高态度，因为他仍然认为特斯拉是一家人工智能公司。但是，他说，这家电动汽车巨头要获得人工智能公司的信贷，就必须首先稳定其汽车业务的收益。
“我们认为，只要核心汽车收益下调，特斯拉就不会作为一家铝业公司获得信贷。他写道，这一过程可能还需要几个季度才能看清，在此期间，我们的100美元熊市可能正在 “发挥作用”。
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