It's been a sad week for Matterport, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTTR), who've watched their investment drop 16% to US$2.07 in the week since the company reported its full-year result. Revenues came in at US$158m, in line with forecasts and the company reported a statutory loss of US$0.66 per share, roughly in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Matterport from seven analysts is for revenues of US$176.4m in 2024. If met, it would imply a meaningful 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 24% to US$0.49. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$177.7m and US$0.53 per share in losses. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrade to loss per share forecasts for this year.

Even with the lower forecast losses, the analysts lowered their valuations, with the average price target falling 15% to US$3.75. It looks likethe analysts have become less optimistic about the overall business. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Matterport, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$5.00 and the most bearish at US$2.75 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Matterport's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 20% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 12% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Matterport's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Matterport analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Matterport that we have uncovered.

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