Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:DCOM) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.3% to US$29.76 in the week after its latest annual results. Revenues came in 2.2% below expectations, at US$413m. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of US$3.73 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
View our latest analysis for Dime Community Bancshares
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Dime Community Bancshares' five analysts is for revenues of US$436.0m in 2023, which would reflect a reasonable 5.7% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 2.7% to US$3.67 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$451.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.03 in 2023. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.
The consensus price target fell 6.7% to US$36.40, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Dime Community Bancshares at US$42.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$34.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Dime Community Bancshares' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 5.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 26% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Dime Community Bancshares is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Dime Community Bancshares. Sadly, they also downgraded their sales forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Dime Community Bancshares' future valuation.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Dime Community Bancshares going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Dime Community Bancshares that you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
最新の業績を考慮すると、DIME Community BancSharesの5人のアナリストの現在の共通認識は、2023年の収入が4.36億ドルに達することであり、過去12カ月間の売上高が5.7%合理的に増加していることを反映している。同期の法定1株当たり収益は2.7%低下し、3.67ドルになると予想される。本報告が発表される前、アナリストたちは2023年の収入は4.518億ドル、1株当たり収益(EPS)は4.03ドルと予測してきた。明らかに、最新の決算報告が発表された後、悲観的な気持ちはすでに台頭し、営業収益の見通しが暗いことを招き、1株当たりの収益予想はやや低下した
共通認識目標価格は6.7%下落し、36.40ドルまで低下し、弱い利益見通しは明らかに評価予想に先行している。しかし、価格目標を考えるもう一つの方法がありますが、それはアナリストが提案した価格目標の範囲を見てみることであり、広範な見積もりは、企業が出現する可能性のある結果について異なる見方をしている可能性があるからです。現在、最も楽観的なアナリストはDIME Community BancSharesを1株42.00ドルと推定しているが、最も悲観的なアナリストは34.00ドルと推定している。推定値間の狭い差は、同社の将来が比較的評価しやすいこと、あるいはアナリストがその将来性を強く考えていることを示している可能性がある
現在の大局から見ると,これらの予測の方法の1つは,過去の業績や業界成長予想とどのように比較しているかを見ることであることが理解できる。明らかに,DIME Community BancSharesの収入増加は大幅に減速することが予想され,2023年末までの収入は年率で5.7%増加すると予想される。対照的に、過去5年間の歴史的成長率は26%だった。この点をアナリストがカバーする業界内の他社と比較すると、これらの会社の収入(合計)は毎年6.5%増加すると予想される。成長予想の鈍化を考慮すると,DIME Community BancSharesは業界全体とほぼ同じ速度で増加することが予想される
ベースライン
最大の懸念は、アナリストたちが1株当たりの収益予想を下方修正したことで、将来的に業務に逆風が生じる可能性があることを示している。残念ながら、彼らも販売予想を下方修正したが、同業務の成長速度は業界自体とほぼ同じになると予想される。コンセンサス目標価格は大幅に低下しており、アナリストは最新の結果を心配していないようで、DIME Community BancSharesの将来推定値の見積もりが低いようだ