While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the CITIC Securities Company Limited (SHSE:600030) share price has gained 15% in the last three months. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 18% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
See our latest analysis for CITIC Securities
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, CITIC Securities actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 12% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.
We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 20% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. It's probably worth investigating CITIC Securities further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
SHSE:600030 Earnings and Revenue Growth January 14th 2023
CITIC Securities is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. If you are thinking of buying or selling CITIC Securities stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for CITIC Securities the TSR over the last 3 years was -7.9%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Although it hurts that CITIC Securities returned a loss of 9.6% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 14%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 3% for each year. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for CITIC Securities you should be aware of.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CN exchanges.
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