Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But that doesn't mean long term investors can avoid big losses. For example the Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd (SZSE:002839) share price dropped 60% over five years. We certainly feel for shareholders who bought near the top. Furthermore, it's down 18% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 9.0% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.
With the stock having lost 4.5% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
View our latest analysis for Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
While the share price declined over five years, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 13% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.
Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.
In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 12% a year in the five year period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
SZSE:002839 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 21st 2022
We know that Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? You can see what analysts are predicting for Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank the TSR over the last 5 years was -55%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While it's never nice to take a loss, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 8.8% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 17%. Of far more concern is the 9% p.a. loss served to shareholders over the last five years. While the losses are slowing we doubt many shareholders are happy with the stock. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank you should know about.
Of course Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CN exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
一般来说,长期投资是一条可行的道路。但这并不意味着长期投资者可以避免巨额亏损。例如,江苏张家港市农村商业银行股份有限公司(SZSE:002839)股价在五年内下跌了60%。我们当然同情那些在接近顶端时买入的股东。此外,它在大约四分之一的时间里下跌了18%。对于持有者来说,这并不是什么乐趣。当然,在此期间,这一股价走势很可能受到了大盘9.0%跌幅的影响。
鉴于该公司股价在过去一周下跌了4.5%,我们有必要看看它的业务表现,看看是否有任何危险信号。
查看我们对江苏张家港农村商业银行的最新分析
在他的文章中格雷厄姆和多德斯维尔的超级投资者沃伦·巴菲特描述了股价并不总是理性地反映一家企业的价值。通过比较每股收益(EPS)和股价随时间的变化,我们可以感受到投资者对一家公司的态度随着时间的推移发生了怎样的变化。
虽然股价在五年内下跌,但江苏张家港农村商业银行实际上成功地增加平均每年每股收益增长13%。因此,每股收益似乎并不能很好地指导人们理解市场对股票的估值。也有可能,此前市场非常乐观,因此尽管每股收益有所改善,但该股仍令人失望。
由于每股收益增长和股价下跌之间缺乏相关性,因此有必要看看其他指标,试图了解股价走势。
与股价形成对比的是,在这五年期间,营收实际上以每年12%的速度增长。对营收和收益进行更详细的审查,可能会解释股价低迷的原因,也可能解释不了;可能会有机会。
下图显示了收益和收入随时间的变化情况(如果您点击该图,您可以看到更多详细信息)。
深圳证交所:002839收益和收入增长2022年10月21日
我们知道,江苏张家港农村商业银行最近提高了底线,但未来会是什么样子?你可以在这里看到分析师对江苏张家港农村商业银行的预测互动未来利润预估图表。
那股息呢?
除了衡量股价回报外,投资者还应考虑总股东回报(TSR)。虽然股价回报只反映股价的变动,但TSR包括股息的价值(假设股息再投资),以及任何折价集资或分拆所带来的利益。可以说,TSR更全面地描绘了一只股票产生的回报。我们注意到,江苏张家港农村商业银行过去5年的TSR为-55%,好于上述股价回报率。这在很大程度上是其股息支付的结果!
不同的视角
虽然亏损从来都不是好事,但江苏张家港农村商业银行的股东可以感到欣慰的是,包括股息在内,他们过去12个月8.8%的亏损没有市场亏损17%左右那么糟糕。更令人担忧的是9%的年利率。在过去的五年里,亏损给股东带来了损失。虽然亏损正在放缓,但我们怀疑有多少股东对该股感到满意。跟踪股价的长期表现总是很有趣的。但要更好地理解江苏张家港农村商业银行,还需要考虑许多其他因素。例如,考虑一下风险。每家公司都有它们,我们已经发现1江苏张家港市农村商业银行警示标志你应该知道。
当然了江苏张家港农村商业银行可能不是最值得买入的股票。所以你可能想看看这个免费成长型股票的集合。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在CN交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。