The pattern that we observed throughout the week at the NYSE index appeared to shadow yesterday's trading session. We saw some early gains which seem to dissipate after the market show lack of strong buying interest. The dominance of decliners over advancers across both NYSE and NASDAQ was reflected in the trading session. Yesterday session saw the major indexes ended mixed, with S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 giving their fifth consecuti...
If we look at how last week’s “warm” inflation data show us, but the decision seemed to be locked. Consumer price index excluding food and energy climbed 0.4%. February increase of CPI have Fed believe that it pay to be more cautious in cutting rates. Beyond any one month's data, there are other reasons to be concerned that this underlying trend could accelerate. If that happens, inflation could get stuck at a level inconsistent wi...
SA contributor Mike Zaccardi views XLP as undervalued, requiring price action improvement. UBS, HSBC, and Barclays all share optimistic predictions for the consumer staples sector in 2024, despite potential slow growth.
$ChargePoint(CHPT.US)$ US stock futures were higher, with S&P Index futures advancing 0.3% before the start of trading. Housing starts and permits for October will be released at 8:30 am ET, followed by e-commerce retail sales for Q3 and the Census Bureau services survey for Q3 at 10 am ET. The Baker Hughes North American rig count for the week ended Nov. 17 will be released at 1 pm ET. In premarket action, bitcoin was up 0.9% and the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) r...
News Highlights $特斯拉(TSLA.US)$shares fell by 0.43%, closing at $260.05. Its options trading volume is 1.93 million. Call contracts account for 53.9% of the whole trading volume. The most traded calls are contracts of $250 strike price that expire on October 6th. The total volume reaches 95,450 with an open interest of 14,924. The most traded puts are contracts of a $245 stri...
The dominance of decliners over advancers across both NYSE and NASDAQ was reflected in the trading session. Yesterday session saw the major indexes ended mixed, with S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 giving their fifth consecuti...
Consumer price index excluding food and energy climbed 0.4%. February increase of CPI have Fed believe that it pay to be more cautious in cutting rates. Beyond any one month's data, there are other reasons to be concerned that this underlying trend could accelerate. If that happens, inflation could get stuck at a level inconsistent wi...
US stock futures were higher, with S&P Index futures advancing 0.3% before the start of trading.
Housing starts and permits for October will be released at 8:30 am ET, followed by e-commerce retail sales for Q3 and the Census Bureau services survey for Q3 at 10 am ET. The Baker Hughes North American rig count for the week ended Nov. 17 will be released at 1 pm ET.
In premarket action, bitcoin was up 0.9% and the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) r...
之前有朋友留言,問我在83賣了tlt。是的,當時確實84買,83賣。目前87又買回來。
打個比方吧,年初 $特斯拉(TSLA.US)$ 跌到100的時候,有幾個人敢買?舉個例子,如果是去年年底150抄底買的特斯拉,發現抄在了半山腰,能抗住繼續跌到100的人有又多少呢?止損割肉不是大問題,抄底沒有買在102更是非常合理的,我們又不是諸葛亮能觀星看牌。但之後觸底反彈,突破了125,趨勢反轉的信號很明顯,這時候是不是應該再買回來呢?
目前我看好tlt,出於幾個原因:
1. 政府發債收斂了,尤其是長期債券發的少了。
2. 經濟疲軟了。失業率升高,新增就業人數大幅減少。
3. 美元跌破關鍵位置(105-106),進入下行趨勢,
4. tlt突破關鍵位置,站上ma5 ,10與20均線,今天回踩,適合逢低買入。其實上週四就站上了,但我等了一下大非農。
5. 雖然美元走軟、利率降低也利好股市,但目前大科技估值過高,經濟的壞消息遲早會反應在eps的下降,股市上漲是不可持續。而且,我在等...
我聽完記者會,只是覺得老生常談,沒有鷹,也沒想到市場解讀爲大鴿派。
9月剛剛嘴炮加息75個點子,發力過猛,這次觀望一下,預料之中啊,哪裏鴿了…不過市場永遠是對的,順勢而爲就是了。
我上週抄底,沒等到議息會議就基本都賣了,因爲不想經歷這種不確定性。所以錯過就錯過了吧。今天既然漲了,那我就進一步拋售了一些。主要是因爲目前spy漲到了下行通道的上軌。這有點超出預料,我以爲只會反彈到4200-4250左右。
賣出的另一個原因,是明早大非農。今年以來,大小非農基本每次背道而馳,週五大概也不例外。但預判沒有意義,要做預案:
如果就業人數大超預期,可能導致股價下跌。但經濟還堅挺,是個逢低買入優質股票的機會。還會關注tlt,但不一定會買。
如果基本符合預期,這個最難操作。股市大概率會繼續反彈,追高又不好玩,我會觀望spy是否反彈超過前高。只要標普再漲2%,波段高點超過了前高,這波熊市結構就被破壞了,大概率意味着三個月來的下行週期的結束。
如果大幅低於預期,那經濟估計要走下坡路了,我會買入tlt $20+年以上美國國債ETF-iShares(TLT.US)$
...
羅素暴跌,是衰退(或者預期要衰退)的先行指標。去年在哀聲一片之前,也出現了羅素暴跌的走勢。
我預測,一旦10年國債突破5%,市場衰退預期必然再起,又要哀聲一片了。然而是否真衰退,還是有一次狼來了,我就無法預測了。
一旦這種預期再起,科技股也要補跌的。比如去年10月,是道指先反彈,納指等到今年1月才補漲。科技巨頭一旦業績暴雷,跌起來也是六親不認的。而且由於目前的價格(pe)更高,戴維斯雙殺的力度更大。這不, $特斯拉(TSLA.US)$ ,之前哪個缺德的上調目標價到400,大家應該還都記得。結果說崩就崩了麼,還400呢,只要不跌破200都算成功 我此前tsla基本清了倉觀望,等待市場選擇方向。剛剛在tsla觸及ma200稍微買了一點點,目前倉位2%。
再說 $蘋果(AAPL.US)$ ,庫克跑去中國,沒有用的。還是趕緊造出下一代手機吧,帶人工智能的那種。目前股價也接近三角形末端,業績前我不會輕舉妄動。
$英偉達(NVDA.US)$ ,箱體內震盪,也沒什麼機會。
科技...
我選擇了以下的股票作爲左手長持對象。
1. $微軟(MSFT.US)$ 規劃倉位10%,目前倉位只有2%,逢低買入,底倉不割。
2. $谷歌-C(GOOG.US)$ 與 $Meta Platforms(META.US)$ ,二選一或者都買,計劃總倉位10%,目前倉位7%的meta,回踩衝低可加倉(右手做空回補),衝高遇阻可賣出(右手做空開倉)
3. $特斯拉(TSLA.US)$ 與 $蘋果(AAPL.US)$ ,規劃倉位10%,目前倉位2%,都是特斯拉。計劃逢低加倉,底倉不賣出。與其玩170以上的蘋果,還不如做波段來玩特斯拉。
4. $阿斯麥(ASML.US)$ ,在我的認知範圍內,是攻守兼備、防禦性絕佳的芯片股。規劃10%,目前5%。半倉狀態,無論漲跌,對我都是好事...
反正我信ADP,畢竟ADP沒有造假的理由。大企業裁員已經從科技行業擴散到各個行業,經濟已經到了衰退的邊緣。而小企業的擴張是脆弱的,隨時可能掉頭。
至於股市怎麼走,我估計是觸底反彈,底部大概在4100點附近。只要經濟不崩潰,股市很難回到4000以下。不過我認爲經濟崩潰是必然的,預計在2024年底,還有一年的時間。現在清倉股市,可能爲時過早了。但無風險收益確實很香。大資金吃利息,護住本金。小倉位玩股票,找點刺激唄。等降息之後再伺機梭哈也不遲。如果明年年底經濟真的崩潰了,那2025年3000點抄底大盤都是能等到的。
$特斯拉(TSLA.US)$ 我就玩玩波段高拋低吸,估計買入的機會又要來了。此外,我減倉了 $谷歌-C(GOOG.US)$ ,等 $蘋果(AAPL.US)$ 和duckduckgo這個風險排除了再說吧,先回避一下。
$可口可樂(KO.US)$ $百事可樂(PEP.US)$ 昨天突然崩了,說是減肥藥導致的,這我真不信。但我覺得,可能是買的太貴,...
$特斯拉(TSLA.US)$ shares fell by 0.43%, closing at $260.05. Its options trading volume is 1.93 million. Call contracts account for 53.9% of the whole trading volume. The most traded calls are contracts of $250 strike price that expire on October 6th. The total volume reaches 95,450 with an open interest of 14,924. The most traded puts are contracts of a $245 stri...
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