如題。
儘管這兩天10年期國債利率衝高回落，但整體上，還保持着完好的多頭排列格局。
上一次出現這種走勢，還是2023年夏天。
當時，美股剛剛在春末夏初走了一波漂亮的上漲。tlt的價格也在橫盤整理。
後來發生了什麼，應該還沒有人忘記吧。
如果10年國債重演這個走勢，那麼長債市場就會很“精彩”了。這也是我最近遠離tlt的主要原因。
至於我手上的vclt，儘管股息率超過了5%，我也打算逢高減倉。只不過沒有那麼大的壓力，因爲股息不錯，和持有現金差不多了，大不了就一直熬到降息。因爲這些錢我沒打算投進股市。
不過股票這邊會好一些，畢竟已經進入牛市，所以可以參考去年7-9月的調整行情。可能有大幅回撤，但總體看好。
總而言之，我會密切關注10年國債的走向。當它結束上行趨勢的時候，市場必然迎來一波漂亮的上漲。
不過，如果利率上行持續的太久，一些經濟比較薄弱的國家，可能會崩潰。
$20+年以上美國國債ETF-iShares(TLT.US)$
$長期公司債ETF-Vanguard(VCLT.US)$
$美國10年期國債收益率(US10Y.BD)$

$蘋果(AAPL.US)$
今天雖然比特幣又跌了（不說了，躺平中，等待多頭救援，或者跌破6萬直接投降），但心情不錯，因爲買了一個新的蘋果手機。順便開倉了aapl（此前只在定投賬戶持有）
債券賬號買入了vclt $長期公司債ETF-Vanguard(VCLT.US)$
減倉了 $微軟(MSFT.US)$

$iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT.US)$
比特幣這波，走的漂亮。
標準的三角形整理突破，然後回踩三角形上軌。目前的價格不需要繼續上漲，只要不跌回去，那就是確認突破了。
根據技術派刻舟求劍的說法，對稱三角形突破之後，漲幅爲三角形的高度。對應比特幣價格漲到8.5萬左右，漲幅約20%。
牛市不折騰，只要不跌回三角形下方就穩穩拿住，直到達到目標預期的20%漲幅，在考慮下一步的操作。
至於大坑貨 $20+年以上美國國債ETF-iShares(TLT.US)$ ，CPI之前如果沒跑，今天再去割肉可能有點過於恐慌了。今天還要拍賣30年國債，看看結果如何吧。目前已經接近2022年低點88-90區間，我認爲不至於跌到去年低點（82-85）。如果在88附近就止跌反彈了，那就是一個超大型的頭肩底。反過來，要是跌破了87-88，就比較微妙了，持有tlt的朋友可以先做一些預案。我目前持有vclt，股息率超過5%了，倉位也不是很重，所以就安心拿着了。 $長期公司債ETF-Vanguard(VCLT.US)$
再補充一句，t...

$20+年以上美國國債ETF-iShares(TLT.US)$
目前tlt的走勢很微妙。雖說不一定會馬上暴跌，但是走的很危險。價格在所有短期均線下方，均線逐漸走出了空頭排列的趨勢。如果近期不能扭轉乾坤，之後恐怕會有一波可怕的跌幅。不過我認爲不會跌倒去年的低點。
而且可能會連累股市。畢竟股市急需一波回調。
目前我的債券賬戶已經清倉了tlt。目前持有兩個etf，其餘資金在券商賬戶，自動買入貨幣基金吃利息。
$長期公司債ETF-Vanguard(VCLT.US)$
$iShares優先股和收益證券ETF(PFF.US)$
這兩個的股息率比較高，所以拿着壓力也不大。
看看明天的CPI是驚喜還是驚嚇吧。反正我對於近期油價的上漲非常不滿。儘管我持有的 $能源指數ETF-SPDR(XLE.US)$ 一路飆漲，但我並不喜歡這種行情。
黃金價格繼續漲。投機的交易者咱就不說了，短炒一波沒問題，但我不懂所以不碰。對於投資者，持有黃金，絕對不如持有美元資產。黃金短炒確實可以賺錢，但從長線來看，不僅不...

While there are numerous options and reasons available to kickstart your short term trading, for me, I set aside a small cash for play based on news hype. Most of the news-screened companies are based on social media activity and short interest. The much speculative stocks $AMC院線(AMC.US)$ $遊戲驛站(GME.US)$ exploded back in 2021 has sparked my interest into short term play. These two stocks have been the most popular tickers in Reddit. Well, why not i...

Using some modifications on Magic Formula of Joel Greenblatt, my thoughts on investment are based on the below 5 yardsticks:
1. Return on equity: at least the return is higher than the prevailing market bank interest rate.
2. Cash flows: company may be making profits but I would set an expectation that at least the cash flows from operating activities should be positive. Alternatively I would be happy that the company has extra monies to distribute dividend or invest and expand its business strategy.
3. Growth: keep an eye on its quality growth where the it's earnings are increasing and compliment the ROE as in point 1.
4. PE ratio: setting price not more than 20 times earnings; a good business does not necessarily measured by a super high PE ratio
5. Dividend yield: as long it is comparable to FD interest rate but have to take note to avoid dividend trap companies
Of course, the simplest way is passive investing via etf $標普500指數(.SPX.US)$ $道瓊斯指數(.DJI.US)$ $長期公司債ETF-Vanguard(VCLT.US)$ $整體股市指數ETF-Vanguard(VTI.US)$ $納指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$ which the risks are diversified and they will revised their basket. Good luck in investing 🍀

My biggest mistake this year is FOMO participating in a frenzy over $遊戲驛站(GME.US)$ back in January, resulted some funds being tied up.
I cringe at misinformation out there surrounding investing and finances in general, especially on social media. Somehow, feel pressured and fear of missing out on investing certain trends😔
I learnt that it is best to invest passively through index funds such as $標普500指數(.SPX.US)$ $長期公司債ETF-Vanguard(VCLT.US)$ $道瓊斯指數(.DJI.US)$  and watch portfolio grow over time. 🍬

Totally agreed with Charlie that the market now is crazy and over valued. Inflation continues to come in hot and a new policy to be announced soon. There is an element of uncertainty and valuations for US equity markets most likely come down over next few months.
With the current supply chain being disrupted, released of oil reserves, overcrowded ports, labor shortages, opex most likely increases more than revenue. This can be seen in most parts of the world as goods price increases, which will lead to demand destruction for many areas of economy. We can track these top markets via $SPDR 標普500指數ETF(SPY.US)$ $美國紅利股ETF-Schwab(SCHD.US)$ $整體股市指數ETF-Vanguard(VTI.US)$ $KraneShares全球碳策略ETF(KRBN.US)$ $富時新興市場ETF-Vanguard(VWO.US)$ $長期公司債ETF-Vanguard(VCLT.US)$  Embrace snafu because it's not fubar yet. So, in all these chaos, let's stay calm and eat ice cream 🍦

While there are numerous options and reasons available to kick start your short term trading, for me, I set aside a small cash for play based on news and meme/hype. With the recent $ROUNDHILL MEME ETF(MEME.US)$ launched, the screened companies are based on social media activity and short interest. The much speculative stocks $AMC院線(AMC.US)$ $遊戲驛站(GME.US)$ exploded back in 2021 has sparked my interest into short term play. Of course, new day traders favorites emerged regularly whenever online message boards light up. While some traders profiting via meme stocks and stocks that based on the news/hype but this is very risky, hence, only invests with an amount you afford to lose. There is always an online ranking board displaying the "hot stocks during the day" or we can use the function heat map and short sale ranking under the "Explore" function which we can screen out the top picks during the day as well. We'll, it's safer to put in $SPDR 標普500指數ETF(SPY.US)$ $長期公司債ETF-Vanguard(VCLT.US)$ $整體股市指數ETF-Vanguard(VTI.US)$ but a small amount to play around the hype will not harm. Happy investing 🔝🍀