Traders now believe there is over an 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the September Federal Reserve meeting.
The "New Fed Communication Network" noted that after the April report, two more CPI reports would be needed to boost the Fed's confidence. The Fed is unlikely to cut rates before September. The significance of the April CPI data lies in its preservation of the possibility of rate cuts later this year and its alleviation of concerns that the Fed might need to further open the do...

U.S. Stocks: The Dow Jones rose 0.88%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.17%, and the Nasdaq increased 1.4%.
Bonds: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 8.19 basis points to 4.3575%. The two-year Treasury yield dropped 8.46 basis points to 4.7343%.
Commodities:
  - WTI June crude oil futures rose $0.61, or 0.79%, to $78.63 per barrel.
  - Brent July crude oil futures gained $0.37, or 0.45%, to $82.75 per barrel.
  - COMEX gold futures increased by 1.35% to $2391.80 per ounce.
  ...

Market consensus expects a moderation in the U.S. April CPI, with some analysts warning investors to brace for potential volatility. Many believe that if inflation slows, the potential for U.S. Treasury gains outweighs that for equities. Despite U.S. stocks nearing record highs, the 10-year Treasury yield remains significantly above its sub-4% levels from the beginning of the year.
Morgan Stanley: The cooling of U.S. April CPI is just th...

Following the release of the PPI, U.S. Treasury yields initially spiked but soon retreated. After Powell’s speech, yields briefly narrowed their decline. The U.S. PPI prompted a short-term rise in the dollar index.
Powell expressed expectations for inflation to decrease but noted that the first quarter data diminished his confidence, making it difficult for the Fed to commi...

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Corporate earnings have been growing much stronger than expected in Australia and the US, while the markets fear gauge as measured by the VIX has calmed, and it seems Middle East tension has eased. So equities are once again being supported higher, despite inflation blowing hotter than expected. As such, Australia's ASX200 and the US benchmarks' the S&P500 and the Nasdaq 100 have rec...