1. Alibaba Cuts Stakes to Raise Cash amid Regulatory Landscape - Alibaba plans to sell 25 million Xpeng Inc. shares, raising $391 million, reducing its stake from 10.2% to 7.5%. - It also trims GOGOX stake by 4.7 million shares, decreasing Alibaba's stake to 10.42%. - China's State Council announces stricter rules for non-bank payment institutions effective May 1, 2024. - Regulatory uncertainties may delay Ant Group's spin-off. $阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)$$阿里巴巴(BABA.US)$$小鵬汽車(XPEV.US)$$小鵬汽車-W(09868.HK)$$快狗打車(02246.HK)$ ...
$滬深300(000300.SH)$$iShares MSCI China A ETF(CNYA.US)$ UOB KH report. MSCI China now trades at an undemanding 12-month forward PE of 10.2x, or a 37.0% discount to Emerging Asia. This steep discount is unwarranted and they expect valuation to normalise in 2H23, backed by additional policy support. However, a significant rerating is only possible if credit growth accelerates; hence, their index target is at 74 points for now, implying 12.0x target PE. They prefer exposure to automobiles, co...
- Alibaba plans to sell 25 million Xpeng Inc. shares, raising $391 million, reducing its stake from 10.2% to 7.5%.
- It also trims GOGOX stake by 4.7 million shares, decreasing Alibaba's stake to 10.42%.
- China's State Council announces stricter rules for non-bank payment institutions effective May 1, 2024.
- Regulatory uncertainties may delay Ant Group's spin-off.
$阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA.US)$ $小鵬汽車(XPEV.US)$ $小鵬汽車-W(09868.HK)$ $快狗打車(02246.HK)$
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US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen plans her second trip to China, emphasizing cooperation in non-sensitive areas like climate and money laundering. Simultaneously, the US Treasury targets Chinese solar panels and EV batteries with clean energy manufacturing subsidy rules.
$小鵬汽車-W(09868.HK)$ $小鵬汽車(XPEV.US)$ $蔚來-SW(09866.HK)$ $蔚來(NIO.US)$ $蔚來(NIO.SG)$ $晶科能源(JKS.US)$ $比亞迪股份(01211.HK)$ $BYD Co.(BYDDF.US)$ $特斯拉(TSLA.US)$
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UOB KH report.
MSCI China now trades at an undemanding 12-month forward PE of 10.2x, or a 37.0% discount to Emerging Asia. This steep discount is unwarranted and they expect valuation to normalise in 2H23, backed by additional policy support. However, a significant rerating is only possible if credit growth accelerates; hence, their index target is at 74 points for now, implying 12.0x target PE. They prefer exposure to automobiles, co...
話題:美國的經濟到底要不要軟着陸?
先說陰謀論的答案:美國根本不想軟着陸,只是想找人墊背。
美國目前的對手盡人皆知:熊貓與毛熊。
先說毛熊,和烏鴉打了快一年了,竟然也沒分出勝負,可見毛熊的實力也沒有那麼強。而美國不斷給烏鴉輸血,讓毛熊的處境越來越艱難。目前美國要做的事情,就是釜底抽薪,斷了毛熊的糧。
毛熊靠什麼吃飯?大家都知道,是能源和大宗商品。主要是油氣,想要給毛熊斷糧,首先要把原油的價格搞下來。搞下油價,基本上只有兩種策略:
1. 增加供給,讓毛熊大量出口。毛熊爲了軍火錢,必須大量出口石油。如果美歐取消了一切限制毛熊油氣出口的政策,毛熊就要增產創收,而中東土豪們爲了應對毛熊增產,很可能也會增產,開始價格戰,不斷壓低油價。但顯然,美歐並沒有打算這麼做,反而是反其道而行,給毛熊設立了一個“價格上限”,那明顯就是給中東土豪們的價格下限好嗎,千萬別低於這個價格賣啊親
2. 消滅需求,讓全球經濟蕭條。這個才是真正讓油價崩盤的手段。美帝早就在暗戳戳的搞這個,現在已經擺在明面上了。那美帝還要軟着陸個毛線啊?...
此外我還把401k養老金從money market fund換成了債券(8月時從標普換成了money market)那邊就不算倉位了。
國內疫情進展有點迅猛,我是真麼想到這麼快。疫情大爆發,是個利空消息,資金找個藉口撤了,這波反彈就差不多要轉向了。之前我也提到過,這波肯定是熊市反彈,不是反轉。中國股市想要逆勢反轉,估計要再次探底,不跌破。屆時疫情利空也該出盡了。
止盈的錢我先攥着,沒有全部買入tlt。先看看吧,tlt沒準會回調。但我覺得肯定不會跌破前低。之前一片文章我也提到過tlt的投資邏輯,就算跌,風險也比股市小多了。
$20+年以上美國國債ETF-iShares(TLT.US)$
中國那邊,等大盤...
不過目前,我對股市還是保持謹慎的態度。過於高漲的情緒,對於通脹就是雪上加霜。我之前提到過,通脹確實見頂,但可能會出現雙頂,這兩個月下來了,之後又抬頭測試新高。
假如聯儲局加息是50+25+25,明年三月就結束了。但果明年3月的通脹繼續抬頭,聯儲局就比較尷尬了,只好硬着頭皮再加息,讓硬着陸摔得更狠一點?如果政策來個大掉頭,那對於股市就是致命的。
通脹會不會抬頭?肯定會的,只是程度問題。中國度過了最開始的恐慌,全面開放,經濟復甦,能源和大宗商品價格一定會有反彈。除非rmb貶值,否則進口成本升高,推高通脹。
更重要的通脹不是商品,而是薪酬物價的螺旋上升,假如聯儲局再這麼軟弱,這就已經無法避免,大滯脹可能會再次降臨,讓未來五年、甚至十年都充滿不確定性。
以下是我個人的看法,不構成投資建議:
1. 2023年,投資債券比股市風險小,收益還可能會更高。參考標的: $20+年以上美國國債ETF-iShares(TLT.US)$ 等etf,還有不錯的股息。
2. 中國股...
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