美國房地產投資股票討論區

U.S. home prices hit new record
U.S. home prices hit a new record of $416,000 in June.
$標普500指數(.SPX.US)$ $道瓊斯指數(.DJI.US)$ $納斯達克綜合指數(.IXIC.US)$ $美國房地產投資(ARL.US)$ $Zillow-C(Z.US)$

Applications to refinance a home loan, which have been incredibly weak due to higher interest rates, rose 2% for the week but were 80% lower than the same week one year ago. At the same time last year, the average mortgage rate was 3.09%. There are very few remaining borrowers who don’t already have lower rates on their mortgages and who could benefit from a refinance. $Zillow-C(Z.US)$ $家得寶(HD.US)$ $美國房地產投資(ARL.US)$ $道瓊斯指數(.DJI.US)$

$Cyngn(CYN.US)$
- support $2  resistance $2.5
$美國房地產投資(ARL.US)$
- Support $20  resistance $23
$Redbox Entertainment(RDBX.US)$
  - support $2.7. Resistance $3.5
$Pulse Biosciences(PLSE.US)$
- support $4.2. resistance $5.3
$CLARUS THERAPEUTICS HLDGS INC(CRXT.US)$
- support $2.2 resistance $2.7

逍遙投資派的第80篇原創美股日日研27: 盤點一下美股中的房地產開發股【分析結果在篇尾 👇 】今天是2022年4月21日，週四盤前，我們來盤點一下房地產開發板塊，一共10支股票，市值從2628億到8.5億，3億以上市值的股票只有5只，真是讓人大跌眼鏡。股票少於10只，沒必要細分，挨個看過去。1. $Landsea Homes(LSEA.US)$是2021年1月上市的股票，毛利率18%，淨利率5%，不是太有吸引力。2020年收入為0，管理費用277萬，總支出267萬，利息收入69萬。在毫無收入的情況下，公司的維持成本極低。2019年收入6.3億，管理成本3500萬，佔比5.6%，也還好。2021年收入10.23億，管理成本7000萬，佔比7%，不太合情理，照常理規模越大，管理佔比應該越小才對。資產負債率51%，2021年存貨8.45億。目前只有3年數據，其中一年的營收還是0，不足以作出有信心的判斷。2. $福里斯特(FOR.US)$淨利潤曲線在波動中上升，5年平均增長率為13%，每股收益增長率略低，營業利潤曲線差異很大...

$美國房地產投資(ARL.US)$American Realty Inc currently owns 78.4% of TCI per the most recent SEC quarterly report.
TCI owns many residential and commercial real estate buildings that they have acquired many years ago and have renovated/leased out.
TCI just received a buyout offer of 383 million at $44.40 per share from Brixton capital.
ARL is entitled to the 300m payout for its 78.4% of the proceeds.
ARL is currently trading at 217m market cap meaning there is a 38% upside once the deal closes. (assuming offer does not increase and excluding ARL equity)
This does not factor in if Brixton increases their offer which I fully expect as Brixton would not lead with their highest offer.
TCI's assets have greatly appreciated from their cost as a result of inflation and increased real estate prices. Just look at their recent commercial building sale in August. TCI sold 600 Las Colinas commercial building after acquiring it 10 years ago at 42.2m for 74.5m. (75% increase) Most of TCI's assets have appreciated 50-75% over the past decade while its stock has remained fairly flat.
TCI's real estate at cost amounts to 431 million and their fair market value is closer to 650m.
This alone would make TCI's share price worth around 70$ when factoring in TCI's equity + real estate at FMV.
Brixton is tendering this offer for TCI as they realize the true value of real estate TCI is holding. I expect Brixton to increase their offer from 44.40$ up to as high as 55$ or 475m buyout which would still be undervaluing TCI's assets.
This does not factor in ARL's other joint ventures and property outside of TCI.
ARL has 30m of equity on the books outside of TCI. (equivalent of 2$ a share)
ARL Fair Value (383M buyout) =((383*.784)+30M)/ 16.15M shares = $20.45$ (47% upside)
ARL Fair Value (475M Buyout) =((475*.784)+30M)/ 16.15M shares = $24.92 (80% upside)
ARL has a 1.48m float so once people figure out this it will run to 18-19$ fast.
PT: 20$ at the minimum, may run higher once we get more press releases about buyout negotiations.
Disclosure: I am long ARL until buyout has been finalized.
$Gaming & Leisure Properties(GLPI.US)$ $MAA房產信托(MAA.US)$ $中國恒大(03333.HK)$

$美國房地產投資(ARL.US)$ 🚀