Source: Wall Street
Shouted last month“Us stocks are really likely to pull back.20%”After thatMorgan StanleyStill stick to his short position, thinking that US stocks will experience“The song of ice and fire”。
Morgan Stanley strategistMichael WilsonHave“The most pessimistic analyst on Wall Street”In his latest report, he reiterated his previous view that an excessive end in the middle of the cycle would have two common outcomes:
Fire: as the Fed draws near, the financial environment will be tightened.Bing: growth is disappointing, especially at the profitable end of the enterprise.
在9In the monthly reportWilsonOnce thought“火”In the context of S & P500The index will be mild and healthy.10%CallbackAnd in“冰”In the context of the recent sharp decline in US consumer confidence, S & P500The index is likely to appear at least10-20%Callback.
this time,WilsonThe point of view has changed a little bit, he saidIt is more and more likely that the two scenarios will be staged at the same time, which will lead to the emergence of US stocks.10%The above callback.
“The Federal Reserve may be in the next month.FOMCIt was announced at the meetingTaperPlan, and at the same time, we also expect corporate earnings will be worse than expected.”
Federal Reserve11The monthly action is basically a consensus on Wall Street, a warning for profits.WilsonSpecifically, in the financial reports released by aperiodic enterprises in the past month,A large number of companies have pointed out serious supply chain problems.After the release of the results, the company's future earnings expectations and stock price expectations have been lowered.
What's more serious is thatWilsonIt is believed that this situation may become a common phenomenon in the third quarter earnings season, and will“Trigger a decline in earnings at the index level——This is certainly disadvantageous to the stock price.”
He mentioned that the profit risk of companies in the third quarter will also come from:1) Enterprises are unable to transmit the pressure of price increases downward.2The risk of rising wages eroding profits3There has been a decline in the consumer side of goods.
In previous reports,WilsonSuggest investorsStick to defensive, high-quality stocks(pharmaceutical and required consumer sectors)，In response“冰”The test ofAnd retain the exposure of some financial stocks.Deal with“火”Such assets will benefit from higher interest rates.
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