CPO Prices Expected To Touch RM4,300 Per Tonne: RHB

CPO價格預計將達到每噸RM4,300：RHB

Oil palm plantation

棕櫚油種植園

The regional plantation sector is poised for recovery, with early first quarter of 2025 (1Q25) results largely in line with expectations.

區域型種植板塊正準備復甦，2025年第一季度（1Q25）的初步結果大致符合預期。

Supported by firmer year-on-year (YoY) crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel prices, the industry is navigating seasonal output lows with resilient profitability. RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB Research) reaffirmed its 'OVERWEIGHT' rating on the sector, citing undervalued valuations and improved export dynamics.

在年度（YoY）毛棕櫚油（CPO）和棕櫚仁價格走強的支持下，行業正在以韌性盈利能力應對季節性產量低谷。RHB投資銀行（RHB研究）重申了對該板塊的「增持」評級，指出其估值被低估且出口動態改善。

In a note, the research house said CPO prices remain firm on a YoY basis, averaging RM4,713/tonne in 1Q25 (18% YoY). Meanwhile, PK prices soared 62% YoY.

在一份報告中，研究機構表示，CPO價格在年度基礎上保持堅挺，預計2025年第一季度平均爲每噸4,713令吉（同比增長18%）。與此同時，PK價格同比飆升62%。

"Despite a 19% quarter-on-quarter dip in fresh fruit bunch (FFB) output across Malaysia due to seasonality, YoY output was stable (0.7%).

“儘管由於季節性原因，馬來西亞的新鮮果串（FFB）產量環比下降19%，但同比產量保持穩定（0.7%）。

"Indonesian planters saw better recovery, with FFB output rising 10% YoY," RHB Research said.

「印尼種植者的恢復情況較好，FFB產量同比增長10%。」RHB研究說道。

In Malaysia, palm oil stockpiles rose 19% month-on-month (MoM) in April to 1.87 million tonnes, driven by a 22% MoM production rebound and a 10% MoM rise in exports.

在馬來西亞，棕櫚油庫存在4月份環比增長19%，達到187萬噸，受月產量反彈22%和出口環比增長10%的推動。

Despite this increase, the research house said the stock/usage ratio remains below historical averages, hinting at healthy demand fundamentals.

儘管如此，研究機構表示，庫存/使用比率仍低於歷史平均水平，暗示基本面健康的需求。

Moving forward, RHB Research expects CPO prices to average RM4,300/tonne in 2025, with exports gaining further traction amid wider discounts to competing oils.

展望未來，RHB研究預計2025年CPO價格將平均爲4,300令吉/噸，出口在更大幅度的競爭油折扣下進一步獲得動力。

"Indonesia's downstream players are expected to benefit from improved margins due to favourable tax differentials, while Malaysian refiners may see margin compression due to stiffer competition," it added.

"預計印度尼西亞的下遊企業將因稅收差異而受益於改善的利潤空間，而馬來西亞的煉油商則可能因競爭加劇而面臨利潤壓縮，"它補充道。

Despite short-term output fluctuations, the research house said the plantation sector's fundamentals remain solid with rising CPO demand, strategic pricing advantages and lean valuations supporting a bullish outlook.

儘管短期產量波動，研究機構表示，種植板塊的基本面依然穩固，CPO需求上升、戰略定價優勢以及估值偏低都支持看好前景。

"Investors looking for exposure to defensively positioned commodity players with strong earnings visibility may find compelling value in select plantation counters," RHB Research shared.

"希望投資於具有強大盈利可見性且防禦性佈局的商品企業的投資者，可能會在精選的種植股中發現有吸引力的價值，"RHB研究分享。

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