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Is First Tractor (HKG:38) A Risky Investment?

Is First Tractor (HKG:38) A Risky Investment?

一拖股份 (HKG:38) 是一種風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  05/02 20:04

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, First Tractor Company Limited (HKG:38) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

傳奇基金經理李路(查理·芒格支持的對象)曾說過:『最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性資本損失。』所以聰明的錢知道,債務——通常與破產有關——是評估公司風險時非常重要的因素。重要的是,一拖股份有限公司(HKG:38)確實有債務。但是,這些債務對股東來說是個問題嗎?

Our free stock report includes 1 warning sign investors should be aware of before investing in First Tractor. Read for free now.
我們的免費股票報告包括1個警告信號,投資者在投資一拖股份前應該注意。現在免費閱讀。

When Is Debt Dangerous?

什麼時候債務變得危險?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

債務在企業支付之前會幫助企業,無論是通過新資本還是通過自由現金流。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制企業。然而,更常見(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,公司必須以極低的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東,僅僅是爲了修復資產負債表。當然,債務的好處是,它通常代表着低成本資本,特別是當它替代了在能夠以高回報率再投資的公司中的稀釋。考慮一個公司的債務水平的第一步是將其現金和債務結合考慮。

How Much Debt Does First Tractor Carry?

一拖股份的債務有多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2025 First Tractor had debt of CN¥297.0m, up from CN¥225.2m in one year. But on the other hand it also has CN¥3.63b in cash, leading to a CN¥3.34b net cash position.

下圖(你可以點擊以獲取更詳細的信息)顯示,到2025年3月,一拖股份的債務爲29700萬元,較去年增加了22520萬元。但另一方面,它也有36.3億元的現金,導致淨現金頭寸達到33.4億元。

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SEHK:38 Debt to Equity History May 3rd 2025
SEHK:38 負債與權益歷史 2025年5月3日

How Healthy Is First Tractor's Balance Sheet?

一拖股份的資產負債表健康嗎?

The latest balance sheet data shows that First Tractor had liabilities of CN¥7.27b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥404.9m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥3.63b in cash and CN¥2.29b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥1.76b.

最新的資產負債表數據顯示,一拖股份在一年內到期的負債爲人民幣72.7億,之後到期的負債爲人民幣40490萬。抵消這一點的是,它擁有人民幣36.3億的現金和人民幣22.9億在12個月內到期的應收款。因此,它的負債超過其現金和(短期)應收款總和人民幣17.6億。

Since publicly traded First Tractor shares are worth a total of CN¥11.9b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. While it does have liabilities worth noting, First Tractor also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.

由於公開交易的一拖股份總值爲人民幣119億,因此這個負債水平似乎不太可能構成重大威脅。但負債的確存在,我們肯定會建議股東繼續關注資產負債表。儘管它有值得注意的負債,但一拖股份的現金超過負債,所以我們相當有信心它可以安全地管理其債務。

It is just as well that First Tractor's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 25% over the last year. When it comes to paying off debt, falling earnings are no more useful than sugary sodas are for your health. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine First Tractor's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

一拖股份的負擔不算太重,這也是好事,因爲其EBIT在過去一年下降了25%。在償還債務方面,下降的收益與飲用含糖飲料對健康的幫助一樣無益。分析負債時,資產負債表顯然是一個關注的重點。但未來的收益,勝過一切,將判斷一拖股份維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你關注未來,可以查看這份免費的報告,了解分析師的利潤預測。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. While First Tractor has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Happily for any shareholders, First Tractor actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.

但我們最後的考慮也很重要,因爲公司無法用紙面利潤償還債務;它需要冷硬的現金。雖然一拖股份在其資產負債表上有淨現金,但仍值得看看其將息稅前利潤(EBIT)轉化爲自由現金流的能力,以幫助我們理解它是多快在積累(或耗損)這一現金餘額。幸運的是,任何股東,一拖股份在過去三年實際產生的自由現金流超過了EBIT。這樣的強現金生成讓我們的心情像穿着黃蜂套裝的小狗一樣溫暖。

Summing Up

總結

Although First Tractor's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of CN¥3.34b. And it impressed us with free cash flow of CN¥945m, being 237% of its EBIT. So we don't have any problem with First Tractor's use of debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for First Tractor you should know about.

雖然一拖股份的資產負債表並不是特別強勁,但由於總負債,它顯然有33.4億人民幣的淨現金,這一點非常積極。它給我們留下了深刻印象,自由現金流達到94500萬人民幣,佔其息稅前利潤的237%。因此,我們對一拖股份使用債務沒有任何問題。在分析債務時,很明顯應該關注資產負債表。然而,投資風險並不全部集中在資產負債表上,遠非如此。這些風險可能很難識別。每家公司都有這些風險,而我們發現了一拖股份的一個警示信號,你應該了解。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

當然,如果你是那種喜歡在沒有債務負擔的情況下買入股票的投資者,那就不要猶豫,今天就來發現我們獨家的淨現金增長股票列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋嗎?對內容有疑慮嗎?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall ST撰寫,屬於一般性質。我們提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,僅使用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不意圖提供財務建議。它不構成對買入或賣出任何股票的推薦,也未考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在提供基於基本數據的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall ST在提到的任何股票中沒有持倉。

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