It hasn't been the best quarter for Forestar Group Inc. (NYSE:FOR) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 18% in that time. On the bright side the share price is up over the last half decade. However we are not very impressed because the share price is only up 51%, less than the market return of 106%. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for the long term, so spare a thought for those caught in the 38% decline over the last twelve months.

Since it's been a strong week for Forestar Group shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

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There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Forestar Group achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 27% per year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 9% over the same period. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 5.93.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

A Different Perspective

Forestar Group shareholders are down 38% for the year, but the market itself is up 9.0%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 9% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Forestar Group is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.