One thing we could say about the covering analyst on TDG Holding Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600330) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as the analyst signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.

Following the downgrade, the current consensus from TDG Holding's solitary analyst is for revenues of CN¥3.1b in 2025 which - if met - would reflect a satisfactory 2.0% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to leap 202% to CN¥0.22. Prior to this update, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of CN¥3.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.24 in 2025. It looks like analyst sentiment has fallen somewhat in this update, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a small dip in earnings per share numbers as well.

The analyst made no major changes to their price target of CN¥8.28, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on TDG Holding's valuation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the TDG Holding's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that TDG Holding's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 3.5% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 17% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than TDG Holding.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that the analyst has reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for TDG Holding. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on TDG Holding after today.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have analyst estimates for TDG Holding going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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