Property Market Resilience Hinges on Tariff-driven Job and Cost Pressures
Property Market Resilience Hinges on Tariff-driven Job and Cost Pressures
Opportunities remain in CCR private homes, the private resale market, and the landed segment, analysts said.
分析師表示,CCR私人住宅、私有轉售市場以及土地市場仍然存在機會。
Singapore's 'resilient' property market is about to face its next big test on an expected economic slowdown brought about by the tariff war.
新加坡的「韌性」房地產市場即將面臨由於關稅戰爭導致的經濟放緩帶來的下一個重大考驗。
Policy uncertainty around US President Donald Trump's on-off global tariffs is expected to weigh on global growth. In turn, Singapore— a trade-dependent economy— will likely feel the strain, said DBS Group Research's equity team in a 23 April 2025 report.
關於美國總統特朗普的全球關稅政策的不確定性預計將對全球增長產生壓力。反過來,作爲一個依賴貿易的經濟體,新加坡可能會感受到這種壓力,DBS集團研究的股票團隊在2025年4月23日的報告中表示。
One key risk is the effect on employment, a major driver of property demand and price, warned DBS Group Research analysts Derek Tan and Tabitha Foo.
DBS集團研究的分析師德里克·譚和塔比莎·富警告說,一個主要風險是就業的影響,這對於房地產需求和價格是一個重要驅動力。
"We may see a pullback in demand if buyer sentiment turns cautious," Tan and Foo said, adding that it has revised their property price index (PPI) growth projection to 0-1% in 2025 (from 1-2%).
譚和富表示:「如果買家情緒變得謹慎,我們可能會看到需求回落。」他們補充說,預計2025年的房地產價格指數(PPI)增長率將修訂爲0-1%(之前爲1-2%)。
They said to watch out for unemployment and affordability trends.
他們表示,需要關注失業和可負擔性趨勢。
"With current government measures in place to curb speculation and limit foreign participation, the private property market is largely supported by upgraders and Singaporean/permanent resident households," the analysts said.
分析師表示:「在政府目前採取的措施旨在遏制投機和限制外國參與的背景下,私人房地產市場主要由升級換房者和新加坡人/永久居民家庭支撐。」
Since 2020, property prices have outpaced income growth, they said. The average property price-to-median income ratio has risen to 14.6x, higher than the 15-year average of 13.6x.
他們表示,自2020年以來,房地產價格已超過收入增長。平均房地產價格與中位收入的比率上升至14.6倍,高於15年平均的13.6倍。
Analysts observed that for new launches, property buyers are increasingly deploying more cash into purchases or seeking help from family; and a higher proportion of resale transactions, which offer better value compared to new launches.
分析師觀察到,對於新推出的房產,購房者越來越多地投入現金進行購買或尋求家庭的幫助;而 resale 交易的比例更高,相較於新推出的房產,提供了更好的價值。
"In this phase of the property cycle, opportunities remain in private homes in Core Central Region (CCR), private resale market, and landed property segment, where new supply is limited," it added.
"在這個物業週期階段,核心中央地區 (CCR)、私人轉售市場和地段物業板塊仍有機會,因爲新的供應有限,"它補充道。
Meanwhile, listed developers under DBS Research's coverage have pre-sold over 80% of their inventories, implying they are well positioned to weather a slowdown in the property market.
與此同時,來自DBS研究覆蓋的上市開發商已預售超過80%的庫存,這意味着他們有良好的定位以應對房地產市場的放緩。
These developers include Capitaland Investment Ltd, City Developments, the UOL Group, Frasers Property Ltd, Guocoland, APAC Reality Ltd., and PropNex Ltd.
這些開發商包括資本投資有限公司、城市發展公司、華業集團、弗雷澤物業有限公司、國浩房地產、亞太房地產有限公司和PropNex有限公司。