Sustainable Investment Under Trump: 'Performance Matters Far More Than Politics,' JPMorgan Analyst Says
Sustainable Investment Under Trump: 'Performance Matters Far More Than Politics,' JPMorgan Analyst Says
Wall Street is speculating on the effects of possible Donald Trump policy changes when he takes office in January 2025. JPMorgan analyst Virgina Martin Heriz weighs in on the potential impacts of a second Trump presidency on sustainable investing.
華爾街正在猜測唐納德·特朗普2025年1月上任後可能發生的政策變化的影響。摩根大通分析師弗吉尼亞·馬丁·赫里茲探討了特朗普第二任總統對可持續投資的潛在影響。
Onshoring: Heriz sees a second Trump administration modifying the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), but doing so with a "scalpel, not a sledgehammer."
在岸：赫里茲認爲，第二屆特朗普政府將修改《通貨膨脹削減法》（IRA），但這樣做是用 「手術刀，不是大錘子」。
The JPMorgan analyst sees the domestic content portions of the IRA as the "most safe incentives" due to bi-partisan support of supply chain onshoring. Heriz points to First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR), SunRun, Inc. (NASDAQ:RUN) and Sunnova Energy International Inc. (NYSE:NOVA) as clean tech companies particularly positioned to benefit from supply chain onshoring.
摩根大通分析師認爲，由於兩黨都支持在岸供應鏈，IRA的國內內容部分是 「最安全的激勵措施」。赫里茲指出，第一太陽能公司（納斯達克股票代碼：FSLR）、SunRun, Inc.（納斯達克股票代碼：RUN）和森諾瓦能源國際公司（紐約證券交易所代碼：NOVA）是清潔技術公司，特別有能力從陸上供應鏈中受益。
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Hydrogen: Heriz also sees the 45V tax credit for clean hydrogen producers as likely to stay due to strong backing from traditional energy companies and Republican-leaning areas. Clean hydrogen companies including FuelCell Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:FCEL) and Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ:PLUG) are likely safe from policy changes under a second Trump administration, according to Heriz.
氫氣：Heriz還認爲，由於傳統能源公司和傾向於共和黨的地區的大力支持，清潔氫生產商的45V稅收抵免可能會保持不變。赫里茲表示，在特朗普第二屆政府執政期間，包括FuelCell Energy, Inc.（納斯達克股票代碼：FCEL）和Plug Power Inc.（納斯達克股票代碼：PLUG）在內的清潔氫氣公司可能不受政策變化的影響。
EV Incentives: The analyst does expect subsidies for electric vehicles to be downsized or repealed, including the 30D clean vehicle tax credit of up to $7,500 on the purchase of a qualifying EV. Additionally, Heriz anticipates tightening EV charging incentives like the 30C tax credit that covers up to 30% of the cost of each charger. Some companies that could be negatively impacted by the repeal of EV and related charging incentives include EVgo Inc. (NASDAQ:EVGO), ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHPT) and Blink Charging Co. (NASDAQ:BLNK).
電動汽車激勵措施：分析師確實預計，對電動汽車的補貼將縮減或取消，包括購買符合條件的電動汽車可獲得高達7,500美元的30D清潔汽車稅收抵免。此外，Heriz預計將收緊電動汽車的充電激勵措施，例如30攝氏度的稅收抵免，最多可涵蓋每個充電器成本的30％。一些可能因廢除電動汽車和相關充電激勵措施而受到負面影響的公司包括EVGO Inc.（納斯達克股票代碼：EVGO）、ChargePoint Holdings, Inc.（納斯達克股票代碼：CHPT）和Blink Charging Co.（納斯達克股票代碼：BLNK）。
Oil & Gas: Domestic oil and gas production is more influenced by market prices and global supply and demand rather than government policies, Heriz said. For this reason, the analyst expects a potentially reduced regulatory burden to be "helpful to the industry, but not life-changing in the short-term."
石油和天然氣：赫里茲說，國內石油和天然氣生產更多地受市場價格和全球供需的影響，而不是政府政策的影響。出於這個原因，分析師預計，可能減輕的監管負擔 「對行業有幫助，但不會在短期內改變生活」。
The Take-Away: While Heriz does expect policy changes to affect sustainable investing under the second Trump administration, she said that outflows in sustainable investing are mainly motivated by underperformance.
要點：儘管赫里茲確實預計政策變化將影響特朗普第二屆政府領導下的可持續投資，但她表示，可持續投資的流出主要是由表現不佳所致。
"Fund performance matters far more than politics," the JPMorgan analyst said.
摩根大通分析師表示：「基金業績遠不止政治。」
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Photo: Earth phakphum via Shutterstock
照片：來自 Shutterstock 的 Earth phakphum
