The projected fair value for Shangri-La Asia is HK$7.78 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Shangri-La Asia's HK$5.34 share price signals that it might be 31% undervalued
Our fair value estimate is 1.8% higher than Shangri-La Asia's analyst price target of US$7.64
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Shangri-La Asia Limited (HKG:69) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$383.0m
US$394.0m
US$403.7m
US$413.3m
US$422.8m
US$432.4m
US$442.0m
US$451.8m
US$461.7m
US$471.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ 2.47%
Est @ 2.37%
Est @ 2.31%
Est @ 2.26%
Est @ 2.23%
Est @ 2.20%
Est @ 2.19%
Est @ 2.18%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 13%
US$339
US$308
US$279
US$253
US$228
US$206
US$187
US$169
US$152
US$138
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$2.3b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 13%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$4.4b÷ ( 1 + 13%)10= US$1.3b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$3.5b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of HK$5.3, the company appears quite good value at a 31% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
SEHK:69 Discounted Cash Flow July 25th 2024
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Shangri-La Asia as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Shangri-La Asia
Strength
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Dividend information for 69.
Weakness
Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hospitality market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Hong Kong market.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Significant insider buying over the past 3 months.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market.
Is 69 well equipped to handle threats?
Moving On:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Shangri-La Asia, we've compiled three further items you should look at:
Risks: Take risks, for example - Shangri-La Asia has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
Future Earnings: How does 69's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
