OpenAI Top Exec Says It's Too Early To Gauge AI's Full Economic Impact: 'We've A Year To Reshape The Economy? That's A Tall Order'
OpenAI Top Exec Says It's Too Early To Gauge AI's Full Economic Impact: 'We've A Year To Reshape The Economy? That's A Tall Order'
OpenAI COO Brad Lightcap on Thursday said that it is still premature to assess the complete economic impact of artificial intelligence.
OpenAI首席运营官布拉德·莱特卡普周四表示，现在评估人工智能的全部经济影响还为时过早。
What Happened: Speaking at Bloomberg's Tech Summit, Lightcap said that the rise of generative AI has not yet significantly transformed the economy. However, he and other AI leaders anticipate more substantial changes in the future.
发生了什么：在彭博社的科技峰会上发表讲话时，Lightcap表示，生成式人工智能的兴起尚未显著改变经济。但是，他和其他人工智能领导者预计，未来将发生更多实质性的变化。
Despite the initial excitement surrounding AI's potential to revolutionize productivity and create new jobs, the actual impact has been more subtle. While there have been some AI-driven layoffs, entire professions have not been replaced or created. It remains unclear how much additional work AI has facilitated.
尽管最初人们对人工智能革新生产力和创造新就业机会的潜力感到兴奋，但实际影响更为微妙。尽管出现了一些由人工智能驱动的裁员，但整个职业尚未被取代或创建。目前尚不清楚人工智能促进了多少额外工作。
Earlier this year, Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, stated that while generative AI can enhance productivity growth, it is unlikely to do so in the immediate future.
今年早些时候，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，尽管生成式人工智能可以提高生产率增长，但在不久的将来不太可能这样做。
Lightcap suggested that it is still too early to determine whether the potential of AI has been overhyped. He humorously remarked that reshaping the economy within a year would be a tall order. "We have a year to reshape the economy? That's a tall order!"
Lightcap表示，现在确定人工智能的潜力是否被过度炒作还为时过早。他幽默地说，在一年内重塑经济将是一项艰巨的任务。“我们有一年的时间来重塑经济吗？这是一项艰巨的任务！”
If OpenAI were to cease all future AI development, which is not the case, Nightcap suggested that it would still require considerable time for the complete ramifications of its existing models to materialize. However, he is "fairly confident at this point that there would be this 10- to 20-year diffusion period through the economy of just GPT-4 level technology."
如果OpenAI停止所有未来的人工智能开发（事实并非如此），Nightcap表示，其现有模型的全部后果仍需要相当长的时间才能实现。但是，他 “目前相当有信心，只有 GPT-4 级别的技术在经济中就会有这10到20年的扩散期。”
Other AI leaders at the event echoed Lightcap's sentiments, emphasizing the technology's long-term disruptive potential despite its relatively muted early effects.
参加活动的其他人工智能领导者也表达了Lightcap的观点，强调了该技术的长期颠覆潜力，尽管其早期影响相对较弱。
"We are probably going to overestimate this technology in the short-term," said Clement Delangue, chief executive officer of Hugging Face. "Maybe we're going to be disappointed in a year, or two years, but we've also probably underestimated the long-term impact of AI in 10 years. The world is going to be very different."
Hugging Face首席执行官克莱门特·德兰格说：“在短期内，我们可能会高估这项技术。”“也许一两年后我们会失望，但我们也可能低估了人工智能在10年后的长期影响。世界将大不相同。”
Why It Matters: OpenAI and other AI companies are actively preparing for this future. OpenAI, for instance, has been expanding its enterprise business, selling a customized version of ChatGPT to numerous corporate clients. Moreover, on Friday, it was also reported that Apple Inc. is on the verge of integrating ChatGPT into its iPhones.
为何重要：OpenAI和其他人工智能公司正在积极为未来做准备。例如，OpenAI 一直在扩大其企业业务，向众多企业客户出售定制版本的 ChatGPT。此外，周五还有报道称，苹果公司即将将ChatGPT集成到其iPhone中。
Meanwhile, OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, has denied rumors of developing a search engine or launching GPT-5, instead teasing "some new stuff" the company is working on. Previously, it was reported that OpenAI is set to announce its AI-powered search product, potentially intensifying its rivalry with Alphabet Inc.'s Google.
同时，OpenAI 首席执行官山姆·奥特曼否认了开发搜索引擎或推出 GPT-5 的传闻，而是嘲笑该公司正在研究的 “一些新内容”。此前有报道称，OpenAI将发布其基于人工智能的搜索产品，这可能会加剧其与Alphabet Inc的竞争。”s 谷歌。
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
免责声明：此内容部分是在Benzinga Neuro的帮助下制作的，并由Benzinga编辑审查和发布。