Cipher Mining Inc. (NASDAQ:CIFR) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Cipher Mining Inc. (NASDAQ:CIFR) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues were US$48m, with Cipher Mining reporting some 4.8% below analyst expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Cipher Mining

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Cipher Mining from six analysts is for revenues of US$161.8m in 2024. If met, it would imply a reasonable 5.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The company is forecast to report a statutory loss of US$0.083 in 2024, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$164.3m and losses of US$0.13 per share in 2024. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a very promising decrease in losses per share in particular.

The average price target held steady at US$5.92, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Cipher Mining analyst has a price target of US$8.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$5.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Cipher Mining shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Cipher Mining's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 7.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 514% over the past year. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 13% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Cipher Mining is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Cipher Mining's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$5.92, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Cipher Mining going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Cipher Mining you should be aware of, and 2 of them are a bit concerning.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.