Dongwu Securities released a research report stating that maintaining the “buy” rating of Xiaopeng Automobile-W (09868), the revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is 630/1114/164.5 billion yuan, +105%/+77%/+48% year-on-year; net profit to mother is 43/8/5.4 billion yuan; and the corresponding EPS is -2.28/0.43/2.84 yuan, respectively. In April 2024, the company delivered a total of 9393 new cars, +33%, +4% month-on-month, and delivered a total of 31,214 vehicles from January to April 2024, +23% year-on-year. The overall performance was in line with expectations.
The main views of Dongwu Securities are as follows:
Intelligent driving is being further accelerated, and products and markets are further developed.
In April, Xiaopeng X9 delivered 1,959 units, with a total of nearly 10,000 units delivered in four months of launch, continuing to lead the pure electric MPV and pure electric three-seater models. In the first four months of 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 31,214 new vehicles, +23% over the same period last year. Intelligent driving is further accelerated, and Xiaopeng XNGP continues to expand the open scale of smart driving users. The monthly active penetration rate of smart driving users in XNGP urban areas reached 82%, and the total mileage of smart driving in 5 days exceeded 18 million km during the May 1st period. In April, Xiaopeng Motor successfully completed high-speed NGP road tests in Germany, and the 2024 high-speed NGP development plan for the world is progressing steadily, and R&D capabilities are better promoting the implementation of functions.
Global overseas markets & product development. In April, Xiaopeng officially entered the Hong Kong and Macau markets and launched its G9, X9, G6 and P7i models for Hong Kong and Macau; at the same time, Xiaopeng G6580 Long Battery Life Plus was officially launched, becoming the only 200,000 yuan model in the industry equipped with an 800V silicon carbide platform and advanced intelligent driving capabilities, highlighting the competitiveness and ultimate cost performance ratio of Xiaopeng products.
Global strategic cooperation has brought new growth poles. The new brand will be launched in June, which is expected to contribute to an important increase in sales.
In April, Xiaopeng Motor and Volkswagen Group signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement on electronic and electrical architecture technology. The two sides will jointly develop electronic and electrical architecture based on Xiaopeng Motor's latest-generation electronic and electrical architecture. Using this architecture, Volkswagen can reduce the number of controllers in the vehicle by 30%, quickly integrate advanced functions such as autonomous driving, and obtain higher cost benefits. Furthermore, this cooperation is very good to recoup the profits of Xiaopeng's R&D investment and quickly return capital. At the same time, based on larger strategic cooperation, it will also positively affect Xiaopeng's future profitability and optimize operating cost structure. The architecture is expected to be applied to Volkswagen brand electric models manufactured in China from 2026.
At the Beijing International Auto Show in April, Xiaopeng Motor debuted the AI Tianji system. The end-to-end solution with a perception+regulation dimension is expected to be fully launched on May 20. At the same time, it was announced that the new brand MONA will be officially launched in June. The MONA brand positions the middle- and low-end mainstream competitive markets, leveraging the differentiated competitiveness of Xiaopeng Smart Driving, and can be expected to explode.