The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But on the bright side, you can make far more than 100% on a really good stock. For instance, the price of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK) stock is up an impressive 100% over the last five years. In the last week the share price is up 1.2%.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During five years of share price growth, Graphic Packaging Holding achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 27% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 15% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days. The reasonably low P/E ratio of 11.60 also suggests market apprehension.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It is of course excellent to see how Graphic Packaging Holding has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Graphic Packaging Holding's TSR for the last 5 years was 119%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Graphic Packaging Holding shareholders are up 16% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 17% a year, over half a decade) look better. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Graphic Packaging Holding , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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