Goldilocks 2024: Investors Increasingly Optimistic On Profits Outlook For Next Year
Goldilocks 2024: Investors Increasingly Optimistic On Profits Outlook For Next Year
Global investors are pushing into higher risk strategies as rate cut expectations and forecasts for a less severe economic downturn raised the appetite for higher equity allocations in their portfolios.
隨着降息預期和對不太嚴重的經濟衰退的預測提高了投資組合中對增加股票配置的興趣，全球投資者正在推動更高的風險策略。
Despite signs of slowing economic growth in recent weeks, only a net 26% of investors polled in Bank of America's monthly Fund Manager's Survey thought profits would worsen in the next 12 months — the most optimistic profit outlook since February 2022.
儘管最近幾周有經濟增長放緩的跡象，但在美國銀行《基金經理人月度調查》中接受調查的投資者中，淨只有26％的人認爲未來12個月的利潤將惡化——這是自2022年2月以來最樂觀的利潤前景。
This drove an increase in equity allocation, up 13 percentage points to 15% overweight — the highest portfolio allocation of equities in since February 2022. The $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$, an exchange traded fund that has tracked the senior U.S. equity index, gained 24% in 2023.
這推動了股票配置的增加，增持了13個百分點至15％，這是自2022年2月以來股票投資組合的最高配置。那個 $SPDR 標普500指數ETF (SPY.US)$追蹤美國高級股票指數的交易所交易基金在2023年上漲了24％。
Goldilocks Favors Stocks But Bearish On Commodities
金髮姑娘偏愛股票但看跌大宗商品
The so-called Goldilocks scenario for the economy references the traditional children's tale and represents growth that is neither too hot to encourage inflation and rate hikes, nor too cold to provoke recession.
所謂的 “金髮姑娘” 經濟情景參考了傳統的兒童故事，所代表的增長既不會太熱而無法鼓勵通貨膨脹和加息，也不會太冷而無法引發衰退。
BofA investment strategist Michael Hartnett said: "Sentiment on 'Goldilocks '24' is the most upbeat since January 2022, with an increase in equity overweights, and most bearish on commodities — relative to bonds — since March 2009."
美國銀行投資策略師邁克爾·哈特奈特表示：“'金髮姑娘'24'的情緒是自2022年1月以來最樂觀的，股票增持幅度增加，而大宗商品相對於債券的看跌幅度最大。”
However, investors said some equity trades were now looking overcrowded — particularly long positions on the Magnificent Seven stocks, which include $Apple (AAPL.US)$, $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ and $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ — the last of which is the year's best-performing stock on the S&P 500 this year, with a massive 236% gain.
但是，投資者表示，一些股票交易現在顯得人滿爲患，尤其是科技七巨頭股票的多頭頭寸，其中包括 $蘋果 (AAPL.US)$， $微軟 (MSFT.US)$ 和 $英偉達 (NVDA.US)$ — 其中最後一隻是今年標準普爾500指數中表現最好的股票，漲幅爲236％。
Rate Cuts Will Favor Bonds
降息將有利於債券
On policy, fund managers were overwhelmingly optimistic the Federal Reserve's cycle of rate hikes was over, with 89% expecting lower rates in the first few months of 2024.
在政策方面，基金經理對美聯儲的加息週期已經結束持壓倒性的樂觀態度，89％的人預計2024年前幾個月將降低利率。
The biggest winners from Fed rate cuts in the first half of 2024 were seen as technology stocks and bonds. The $Pimco Etf Trust Total Return Active Exch-Traded Fund (BOND.US)$ is up 7.2% in the past two months.
2024年上半年美聯儲降息的最大贏家被視爲科技股和債券。那個 $PIMCO總回報主動型ETF (BOND.US)$ 在過去兩個月中上漲了7.2％。
A net 50% of investors polled in the survey said they expected weaker economic growth over the next 12 months, but more than 70% predicted a soft landing.
在調查中接受調查的投資者中，淨有50％的人表示，他們預計未來12個月經濟增長將疲軟，但超過70％的人預測將出現軟着陸。