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Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Sicher Elevator Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301056)

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Sicher Elevator Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301056)

計算森赫電梯股份有限公司(深圳證券交易所代碼:301056)的內在價值
Simply Wall St ·  2023/07/28 19:28

Key Insights

主要見解

  • Sicher Elevator's estimated fair value is CN¥12.27 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Sicher Elevator's CN¥11.76 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
  • Sicher Elevator's peers are currently trading at a premium of 1,750% on average
  • 基於兩階段自由現金流轉股權,思謝電梯的公允價值估計為12.27加元
  • 思謝電梯的CN股價為11.76元,表明其交易水準與其公允價值估計類似
  • 西謝電梯的同行目前的平均溢價為1750%

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Sicher Elevator Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301056) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

今天,我們將通過估計公司未來現金流並將其折現為現值來評估思謝電梯有限公司(SZSE:301056)的內在價值。貼現現金流(DCF)模型是我們將應用的工具。這聽起來可能很複雜,但實際上很簡單!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

對公司的估值可以有很多種方式,因此我們要指出,貼現現金流並不適用於每一種情況。如果你想了解更多關於貼現現金流的資訊,可以在Simply Wall St.分析模型中詳細閱讀這種計算背後的原理。

See our latest analysis for Sicher Elevator

查看我們對希謝爾電梯的最新分析

What's The Estimated Valuation?

估計的估價是多少?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我們將使用兩階段貼現現金流模型,顧名思義,該模型考慮了兩個增長階段。第一階段通常是一個較高的成長期,接近終值,在第二個“穩定增長”階段捕捉到。首先,我們需要估計未來十年的現金流。由於沒有分析師對自由現金流的估計,我們根據公司最近報告的價值推斷出了之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

一般來說,我們假設今天的一美元比未來的一美元更有價值,所以我們將這些未來現金流的價值貼現到以今天美元計算的估計價值:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

10年自由現金流(Fcf)預測

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥161.1m CN¥190.9m CN¥217.3m CN¥240.4m CN¥260.5m CN¥278.2m CN¥293.9m CN¥308.3m CN¥321.7m CN¥334.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ 25.06% Est @ 18.47% Est @ 13.85% Est @ 10.62% Est @ 8.36% Est @ 6.77% Est @ 5.67% Est @ 4.89% Est @ 4.35% Est @ 3.97%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 10% CN¥146 CN¥157 CN¥162 CN¥162 CN¥159 CN¥154 CN¥148 CN¥141 CN¥133 CN¥125
二零二四年 2025年年 二零二六年 2027年年 2028年年 2029年年 二0三0 2031年年 2032年年 2033年
槓桿FCF(CN元,百萬元) 淨額1.611億元 CN元1.909億元 淨額2.173億元 CN元2.404億元 CN元2.605億元 淨額2.782億元 淨額2.939億元 CN元3.083億元 淨額3.217億元 CN元3.345億元
增長率預估來源 Est@25.06% Est@18.47% Est@13.85% Est@10.62% Est@8.36% Est@6.77% Est@5.67% Est@4.89% Est@4.35% Est@3.97%
現值(CN元,百萬元)折現10% 人民幣146元 CN元157元 CN元162元 CN元162元 CN元159元 CN元154元 CN元148元 CN元141元 CN元133元 CN元125元

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥1.5b

(“美國東部時間”=Simply Wall St.預估的Fcf成長率)
10年期現金流現值(聚偏氟乙烯)=CN人民幣15億元

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 10%.

第二階段也被稱為終端價值,這是企業在第一階段之後的現金流。出於一些原因,使用了一個非常保守的增長率,不能超過一個國家的國內生產總值增長率。在這種情況下,我們使用了10年期政府債券收益率的5年平均值(3.1%)來估計未來的增長。與10年“增長”期一樣,我們使用10%的權益成本,將未來現金流貼現到今天的價值。

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥334m× (1 + 3.1%) ÷ (10%– 3.1%) = CN¥4.8b

終端值(電視)=FCF2033年×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元334M×(1+3.1%)?(10%-3.1%)=CN元4.8b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥4.8b÷ ( 1 + 10%)10= CN¥1.8b

終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元48億?(1+10%)10=CN人民幣18億元

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥3.3b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥11.8, the company appears about fair value at a 4.1% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

總價值是未來十年的現金流總和加上貼現的終端價值,得出總股權價值,在本例中為33億加元。在最後一步,我們用股本價值除以流通股的數量。相對於目前11.8元的股價,該公司的公允價值似乎比目前的股價有4.1%的折讓。任何計算中的假設都會對估值產生很大影響,因此最好將其視為粗略估計,而不是精確到最後一分錢。

dcf
SZSE:301056 Discounted Cash Flow July 28th 2023
深圳證券交易所:301056貼現現金流2023年7月28日

The Assumptions

假設

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Sicher Elevator as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.011. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

我們要指出,貼現現金流最重要的投入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。投資的一部分是你自己對一家公司未來業績的評估,所以你自己試一試計算,檢查你自己的假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將西謝電梯視為潛在股東,股權成本被用作貼現率,而不是佔債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了10%,這是基於槓桿率為1.011的測試版。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。

SWOT Analysis for Sicher Elevator

四川電梯的SWOT分析

Strength
強度
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • 債務不被視為一種風險。
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
  • 股息由收益和現金流支付。
  • Dividend information for 301056.
  • 301056年度股息資訊。
Weakness
軟肋
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • 在過去的一年裡,公司的收益有所下降。
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Machinery market.
  • 與機械市場前25%的股息支付者相比,股息很低。
  • Key risks with investing in 301056.
  • 投資301056的主要風險。
Opportunity
機會
  • Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
  • 目前的股價低於我們對公允價值的估計。
  • Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine 301056's earnings prospects.
  • 由於缺乏分析師的報道,很難確定S 301056財年的盈利前景。
Threat
威脅
  • No apparent threats visible for 301056.
  • 301056沒有明顯的威脅。

Moving On:

下一步:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Sicher Elevator, we've put together three essential factors you should explore:

雖然貼現現金流的計算很重要,但它只是一家公司需要評估的眾多因素之一。貼現現金流模型並不是一個完美的股票估值工具。相反,貼現現金流模型的最佳用途是測試某些假設和理論,看看它們是否會導致公司被低估或高估。如果一家公司以不同的速度增長,或者如果其股本成本或無風險利率大幅變化,產出可能看起來非常不同。對於希謝爾電梯,我們總結了你應該探索的三個基本因素:

  1. Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Sicher Elevator .
  2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
  3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!
  1. 風險:為此,您應該意識到1個個警告標誌我們發現了西謝爾電梯。
  2. 其他穩固的企業:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是強勁業務的基礎。為什麼不探索我們具有堅實商業基本面的股票的互動列表,看看是否有其他您可能沒有考慮過的公司!
  3. 其他頂級分析師選擇:有興趣看看分析師們在想什麼嗎?看看我們的互動式分析師首選股票列表,看看他們認為哪些股票可能具有誘人的未來前景!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

PS.Simply Wall St.應用每天對深交所的每隻股票進行現金流貼現估值。如果你想找到其他股票的計算方法,只需蒐索此處。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫.或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是暗示Wallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性.我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議.它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況.我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析.請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內.Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉.

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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