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Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited (HKG:968)

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited (HKG:968)

估計信義太陽能控股有限公司的內在價值 (HKG: 968)
Simply Wall St ·  2023/03/20 02:33

Key Insights

關鍵洞察

  • The projected fair value for Xinyi Solar Holdings is HK$8.57 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of HK$8.79 suggests Xinyi Solar Holdings is potentially trading close to its fair value
  • Analyst price target for 968 is HK$12.01, which is 40% above our fair value estimate
  • 信義太陽能控股的 2 階段自由現金流計算,信義太陽能控股的公允價值為 8.57 港元
  • 當前股價 8.79 港元表明信義太陽能控股有可能接近其公允價值
  • 968 的分析師目標價格為 12.01 港元,比我們的公允價值估計高出 40%

Does the March share price for Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited (HKG:968) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

信義光能控股有限公司 (HKG: 968) 3 月股價會否反映其真正價值?今天,我們將通過獲取預期的未來現金流並將其折扣到今天的價值來估計股票的內在價值。這將使用折現現金流(DCF)模型完成。實際上並不是那麼多,即使它可能看起來相當複雜。

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

但請記住,有很多方法可以估計公司的價值,而 DCF 只是一種方法。對於那些熱衷於股票分析學習者的人來說,這裡的 Simply Wall St 分析模型可能會讓您感興趣。

View our latest analysis for Xinyi Solar Holdings

查看我們對信義太陽能控股的最新分析

What's The Estimated Valuation?

估計估值是多少?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我們正在使用兩個階段的成長模式,這意味著我們考慮了公司成長的兩個階段。在初始期間,該公司可能具有較高的增長率和第二階段通常被認為具有穩定的增長率。在第一階段,我們需要估計未來十年的現金流向業務。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師估計值,但是當這些不可用時,我們會從上次估計或報告值中推斷先前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設自由現金流減少的公司將減緩其收縮率,並且自由現金流量不斷增長的公司在此期間將看到其增長速度放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映早年的增長往往比以後幾年更緩慢。

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

DCF 是所有關於這樣的想法,即未來的一美元比今天一美元的價值更低,所以我們需要打折這些未來現金流的總和,以達到一個現值估計:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

十年自由現金流預測

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF (HK$, Millions) -HK$4.64b HK$751.8m HK$5.21b HK$6.13b HK$7.75b HK$8.96b HK$9.99b HK$10.8b HK$11.5b HK$12.1b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x4 Analyst x6 Analyst x4 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 15.62% Est @ 11.46% Est @ 8.54% Est @ 6.50% Est @ 5.07%
Present Value (HK$, Millions) Discounted @ 11% -HK$4.2k HK$608 HK$3.8k HK$4.0k HK$4.6k HK$4.7k HK$4.7k HK$4.6k HK$4.4k HK$4.2k
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
槓桿式基金 (港幣、百萬元) -港幣四四百六十四億 港幣七五千一百八十萬元 港幣五百二十一億 港幣六百一十三億 港幣七五百七十五億 港幣 8.96 億 港幣九百九十九億元 港幣 10.8 億元 港幣一百五十五億 港幣十二億一億
成長率預估來源 分析師 x4 分析師 x6 分析師 x4 分析師 x1 分析師 x1 東部 東區 @11.46% 東區 @8.54% 東部 @6.50% 東區 @5.07%
現值 (港幣、百萬元) 折扣 @ 11% -港幣四千萬元 港幣 608 元 港幣三百八十萬 港幣四百零萬 港幣四百六十萬 港幣四百七十萬 港幣四百七十萬 港幣四百六十萬 港幣 4.4 萬元 港幣四千萬元

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = HK$31b

(「東」= FCF 增長率估計的簡單牆街)
十年期現金流現值 = 港幣 31 億元

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.7%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 11%.

我們現在需要計算終端價值,該價值佔了這十年期間後所有未來的現金流。基於很多原因,使用非常保守的增長率不能超過一個國家的 GDP 增長率。在這種情況下,我們使用 10 年期政府債券收益率的 5 年平均值(1.7%)來估計未來的增長。與 10 年「增長」期相同,我們使用 11% 的權益成本將未來的現金流折扣到今天的價值。

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = HK$12b× (1 + 1.7%) ÷ (11%– 1.7%) = HK$130b

終端機價值= FCF2032 × (1 + 克) ÷ (年 — 克) = 12 百萬港元 × (1 + 1.7%) ÷ (11% — 1.7%) = 一百三十億港元

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= HK$130b÷ ( 1 + 11%)10= HK$45b

端子值現值 (PVTV)= 電視/(1 + r)10= 130 百萬港元除以上 (1 + 11%)10= 港幣 45 億元

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is HK$76b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$8.8, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

總價值是未來十年的現金流量總和加上折現的終期價值,這導致總權益價值,在這種情況下為 76B 港元。在最後一步,我們將權益價值除以流通股份的數量。與目前的股價 8.8 港元相比,該公司在撰寫本文時出現在公允價值附近。任何計算中的假設對估值都有很大的影響,因此最好將其視為粗略估計,而不是精確到最後一分錢。

dcf
SEHK:968 Discounted Cash Flow March 20th 2023
聯交所:968 現金流折現金流量優惠 2023 年 3 月 20 日

Important Assumptions

重要假設

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Xinyi Solar Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.326. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

上面的計算非常依賴於兩個假設。第一個是折扣率,另一個是現金流。投資的一部分是您自己對公司未來業績的評估,因此請自己嘗試計算並檢查自己的假設。DCF 也沒有考慮一個行業的可能的週期性,或一個公司的未來資本需求,所以它不會給一個公司的潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將信義太陽能控股視為潛在股東,因此股權成本被用作折扣率,而不是用來計算債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本 WACC)。在此計算中,我們使用了 11%,它基於 1.326 的槓桿測試版。與整體市場相比,Beta 版是衡量股票波動性的衡量標準。我們從全球同類公司的行業平均測試版中獲得測試版,其施加限制在 0.8 到 2.0 之間,這對於穩定業務來說是一個合理的範圍。

SWOT Analysis for Xinyi Solar Holdings

信義太陽能控股的優劣分析

Strength
強度
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • 債務不被視為風險。
  • Balance sheet summary for 968.
  • 968 的資產負債表摘要。
Weakness
弱點
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • 過去一年的收益下降。
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Semiconductor market.
  • 與半導體市場中最高 25% 的派息人相比,股息較低。
  • Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
  • 根據市盈率和估計公允價值計算昂貴。
Opportunity
机会
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Hong Kong market.
  • 預計全年盈利增長速度會較香港市場快。
Threat
威脅
  • Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.
  • 支付股息,但公司沒有自由現金流。
  • See 968's dividend history.
  • 請參閱 968 年的股利紀錄。

Looking Ahead:

展望未來:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Xinyi Solar Holdings, we've put together three additional aspects you should consider:

就構建投資論文而言,估值只是硬幣的一面,理想情況下,估值不會是您為公司審查的唯一分析。使用 DCF 模型不可能獲得萬無一失的估值。相反,它應該被視為「這隻股票需要什麼假設才能被低估/高估?」例如,如果稍微調整終端值成長率,則可能會大幅改變整體結果。對於信義太陽能控股,我們匯總了您應該考慮的三個其他方面:

  1. Risks: Take risks, for example - Xinyi Solar Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 968's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
  1. 風險: 以風險為例-信義光能控股有限公司 1 警告標誌 我們認為您應該知道。
  2. 未來收益: 968 的增長率與同業和更廣泛的市場相比如何?透過與我們的免費分析師成長期望圖表互動,深入了解未來幾年的分析師共識編號。
  3. 其他高品質的替代品:你喜歡一個好的全能者嗎?探索我們的高質量股票交互式列表,了解您可能缺少的其他內容!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

PS。Simply Wall St 應用程序每天為聯交所的每隻股票進行現金流折扣估值。如果您想查找其他股票的計算,只需在此處搜索即可。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?關注內容? 取得聯繫 直接與我們聯繫。 或者,通過電子郵件發送電子郵件給編輯團隊。
這篇文章由簡單牆聖是一般性質. 我們僅使用公正的方法,根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。 它並不構成購買或出售任何股票的建議,也不會考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本數據驅動的長期集中分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。簡易華街在提及的任何股票中都沒有倉位。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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