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Is There An Opportunity With Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603599) 46% Undervaluation?
Is There An Opportunity With Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603599) 46% Undervaluation?
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603599) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical
Crunching The Numbers
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥1.73b | CN¥1.92b | CN¥2.08b | CN¥2.22b | CN¥2.35b | CN¥2.47b | CN¥2.58b | CN¥2.68b | CN¥2.79b | CN¥2.89b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 13.93% | Est @ 10.71% | Est @ 8.46% | Est @ 6.88% | Est @ 5.78% | Est @ 5% | Est @ 4.46% | Est @ 4.08% | Est @ 3.82% | Est @ 3.63% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.8% | CN¥1.6k | CN¥1.6k | CN¥1.6k | CN¥1.6k | CN¥1.5k | CN¥1.5k | CN¥1.4k | CN¥1.4k | CN¥1.3k | CN¥1.2k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥15b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.8%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥2.9b× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (8.8%– 3.2%) = CN¥53b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥53b÷ ( 1 + 8.8%)10= CN¥23b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥38b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥31.3, the company appears quite good value at a 46% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
SHSE:603599 Discounted Cash Flow November 17th 2022Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.937. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical, we've compiled three important elements you should further examine:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does 603599's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SHSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天,我們將介紹一種評估安徽廣信農化股份有限公司(上海證券交易所代碼:603599)內在價值的方法,即預測其未來現金流,然後將其折現為今天的價值。實現這一點的一種方法是使用貼現現金流(DCF)模型。這聽起來可能很複雜,但實際上很簡單!
我們要提醒的是,對一家公司進行估值的方法有很多種,與貼現現金流一樣,每種方法在某些情況下都有優缺點。如果你想了解更多關於貼現現金流的信息,可以在Simply Wall St.分析模型中詳細閲讀這種計算背後的原理。
查看我們對安徽廣信農化的最新分析
仔細研究這些數字
我們使用所謂的兩階段模型,也就是説,公司的現金流有兩個不同的增長率。一般來説,第一階段是較高增長階段,第二階段是較低增長階段。首先,我們必須對未來十年的現金流進行估計。由於沒有分析師對自由現金流的估計,我們根據公司最近報告的價值推斷出了之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。
貼現現金流就是這樣一種想法,即未來一美元的價值低於現在的一美元,因此我們需要對這些未來現金流的總和進行貼現,以得出現值估計:
10年自由現金流(FCF)預測
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
槓桿FCF(CN元,百萬元) | 淨額17.3億元 | CN元1.92B元 | CN元20.8億元 | CN元22.2億元 | CN元23.5億元 | 淨額24.7億元 | CN元25.8億元 | CN人民幣26.8億元 | 淨額27.9億元 | CN元28.9億元 |
增長率預估來源 | Est@13.93% | Est@10.71% | Est@8.46% | Est@6.88% | Est@5.78% | EST@5% | Est@4.46% | Est@4.08% | Est@3.82% | Est@3.63% |
現值(CN元,百萬)貼現@8.8% | CN元1.6K元 | CN元1.6K元 | CN元1.6K元 | CN元1.6K元 | CN元1.5K | CN元1.5K | CN元1.4K元 | CN元1.4K元 | CN元1.3K元 | CN元1.2K |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.預估的FCF成長率)
10年期現金流現值(PVCF)=CN元150億元
我們現在需要計算終端價值,它説明瞭這十年之後的所有未來現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算終端價值,其未來年增長率等於10年期政府債券收益率3.2%的5年平均水平。我們以8.8%的權益成本將終端現金流貼現到今天的價值。
終端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元2.9b×(1+3.2%)?(8.8%-3.2%)=CN元53b
終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元530億?(1+8.8%)10=CN元230億元
總價值是未來十年的現金流總和加上貼現的終端價值,得出總股權價值,在本例中為38億加元。為了得到每股內在價值,我們將其除以總流通股數量。與目前31.3元的股價相比,該公司的價值似乎相當不錯,較目前的股價有46%的折讓。不過,請記住,這只是一個大致的估值,就像任何複雜的公式一樣--垃圾輸入,垃圾輸出。
上海證交所:603599貼現現金流2022年11月17日重要假設
上述計算在很大程度上取決於兩個假設。第一個是貼現率,另一個是現金流。投資的一部分是你自己對一家公司未來業績的評估,所以你自己試一試計算,檢查你自己的假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將安徽廣信農化視為潛在股東,股權成本被用作折現率,而不是計入債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了8.8%,這是基於槓桿率為0.937的測試版。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
接下來的步驟:
儘管一家公司的估值很重要,但它不應該是你在研究一家公司時唯一考慮的指標。貼現現金流模型並不是投資估值的全部。相反,它應該被視為“什麼假設需要成立才能讓這隻股票被低估或高估”的指南。例如,如果終端價值增長率稍有調整,可能會極大地改變整體結果。為什麼內在價值高於當前股價?對於安徽廣信農化,我們整理了三個重要元素,你應該進一步研究一下:
- 風險例如,我們發現安徽廣信農化2個警示信號(1有點令人不快!)在這裏投資之前你應該意識到這一點。
- 未來收益:603599的增長率與同行和更廣泛的市場相比如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,更深入地挖掘分析師對未來幾年的共識數字。
- 其他穩固的企業:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是強勁業務的基礎。為什麼不探索我們具有堅實商業基本面的股票的互動列表,看看是否有其他您可能沒有考慮過的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.應用每天對上交所的每隻股票進行現金流貼現估值。如果你想找到其他股票的計算方法,只需搜索此處。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
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在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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